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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    韩国:2012~2013年回顾与展望

    摘要

    2012年,韩国国内实现了第19届国会议员选举和第18届总统大选,保守派势力继续在国会中占据优势地位,新国家党代表朴槿惠以微弱优势获胜,成为韩国宪政史上的首位女性总统。外交安全方面,李明博政府继续推动其安保外交、通商外交和全球外交,首尔核安全峰会和丽水世博会等里程碑式的国际会议的召开,进一步彰显了韩国的地位和形象。韩朝关系则是变化多端、危机四伏,受各种因素影响没能延续2011年的缓和势头,而是陷入了停顿状态,朝鲜发射火箭和“光明星3号”卫星等突发事件对朝鲜半岛局势也产生了重大影响。年内韩国经济增长速度继续放缓,实际国内生产总值比2011年增长2%,增速为2009年以来最低。2012年年初,李明博访华,两国领导人共同提出以2012年中韩建交20周年为新起点,发展更加密切的中韩战略合作伙伴关系。中韩正式启动中韩自贸协定(FTA)的谈判,并在解决朝核问题上相互配合。在2013年里,韩国将迎来以新总统朴槿惠为首的新一届政府。分析朴槿惠的竞选纲领,可以看出新政府将在改善民生、实行经济民主化方面倾注更多的精力。随着欧盟债务危机逐步缓解,美国和中国等国家经济有望出现好转并持续复苏,新一届韩国政府将采取一切可能措施,推动经济发展,预计韩国2013年的经济增长率有望达到2。8%。在外交方面,朴槿惠上任后会继续巩固韩美同盟,也将致力于和周边国家构筑合作的战略外交以及在全球范围内开展公共外交。韩中双方都致力于推动逐步走向成熟的中韩关系迈向更加光明美好的未来20年。和朝鲜的关系,新政府意在采取保持对朝“抑制力”的同时推动朝鲜半岛“信任政治”进程的政策。 <<
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    Abstract

    In the year of 2012,South Korea completed its election of 19th Congress member,who hold the dominant position in the congress as conservatives,and the 18th president.Park Geun-hye got a narrow victory as New Frontier Party representative and became the first female president in history of South Korean constitutional government.In the field of diplomacy,Lee Myung-bak administration compels their foreign policy of security,trade and global strategies.The international conferences such as Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul and the World Exposition in Yeosu shows off the international standing of South Korea.However,the inter-Korean relation was back against the wall with highly variable issues.The relaxative tendency from 2011 was not continued but fell into a dead state because of various factors.Such emergencies as rocket launching and Kwongmyongsong-3 by North Korea also did a significant impact to situation of the Korean Peninsula.The rate of economic growth is still in a slowdown.There was a 2% increase in RGDP than 2011,witch is the lowest growth rate since 2009.At the beginning of 2012,Lee Myung-bak visited China,the leaders of both countries proposed to develop the strategic partnership of China and South Korea by taking 2012,the year of the 20th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries,as a new start.They officially started the negotiation of FTA and cooperated in solving North Korea nuclear issue. In the year of 2013,South Korea will meet the new government with Park Geun-hye as president.Her election program can be analyzed as the following:the new government will do more on aspects of improving people's livelihood and carrying out economic democracy.With the solution of European debt crisis,there will be a improvement or even sustained recovery of US and China,so the new government will do its best to promote economic development with the expected result that the economic growth in 2013 will reach 2.8%.In the field of diplomacy,she will continue to consolidate South Korea-US alliance while build cooperation strategy with neighbour countries and do global diplomacy worldwide.Both South Korea and China devote themselves to promote their glorious relation in the next two decades.To North Korea,the new government will keep the constraining force as well as a mutual trust politics. <<
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    作者简介
    韩国发展报告(2013)编写组:
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