您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    通胀知觉与通胀预期的社会心态分析

    摘要

    了解影响普通民众通胀知觉和通胀预期的因素,对于描述社会心态和做好通胀预期的管理至关重要。本研究采用分层线性模型方法对1995~1999年央行《居民储蓄行为调查问卷》数据进行分析,发现通胀知觉和预期的均值受当下去波CPI的显著正向影响,但CPI波动的效应不显著;收入能负向预测通胀预期,并受到去波CPI的调节;城镇人口与农村人口通胀知觉无显著差异,但前者较后者有更低的通胀预期,且去波CPI对户口所在地与通胀预期之间的关系有一个调节作用;士、工、商三者与农业生产者的通胀知觉没有显著差异,但前三者较后者有更高的通胀预期;职业与工作预期之间的关系同样受到去波CPI的调节。本研究详细讨论了这些发现背后的心理机制及其对于通胀预期管理的意义。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    The perception and expectation of inflation are judgments about present and future inflation.The econometrician can easily observe the objective magnitudes of inflation whereas individuals can only react on the basis of their subjective magnitudes and suffer more from social amplification,availability heuristics and so on.So,it is very important to investigate the factors that influence their perception and expectation of inflation.In this study,using the method of hierarchical linear modeling,we analyzed the data in the surveys of residents’ saving behavior from the People’s Bank of China during 1995-1999,and found that the means of the perception and expectation of inflation were positively and significantly influenced by HP Trend of CPI (consumer price index),while not significantly influenced by HP Cycle of CPI.Income predicted the expectation of inflation negatively,and HP Trend of CPI moderated the relationship between income and the expectation of inflation.There was no significant difference of the perception of inflation between urban dweller and rural population,while urban dweller’s expectation of inflation was higher than rural population’s,and HP Trend of CPI moderated the relationship between place of residence and the expectation of inflation.There were no differences of the perception of inflation among scholars,farmers,artisans and merchants.But formers’ expectation of inflation ware higher than others,and HP Trend of CPI moderated the relationship between vocation and the expectation of inflation.We discussed the mental mechanisms behind these findings and their meanings for managing the expectation of inflation in detail.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    俞宗火:俞宗火,北京大学光华管理学院博士后。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告