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    2022~2023年北京市金融运行形势分析与预测

    摘要

    本文分析了2022年北京市金融运行特点,分析发现,一是金融总量保持合理增长,为稳住首都经济基本盘和高质量发展提供有力支撑,人民币贷款余额同比增长10。9%,增量创历史新高;二是社会融资规模合理增长,金融业对实体经济支持力度显著加强;三是对实体经济重点领域和薄弱环节的信贷支持力度持续增强,服务实体经济质效进一步提升;四是企业贷款加权平均利率降至3。09%,再创历史新低,全年通过贷款利率下行向实体经济让利超400亿元。需要关注经济回暖进程不及预期恢复仍存挑战,新规出台限制财务公司信贷投放,清洁生产、生态环境等产业的绿色贷款规模有待提高,短期偿债压力相对较大等问题。预计2023年,北京市将切实加大金融对实体经济的支持力度,货币信贷总量和社会融资规模稳定增长、流动性合理充裕、金融结构稳步优化、综合融资成本稳中有降,为全面建设社会主义现代化国家开好局起好步提供有力金融支持。

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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the characteristics of Beijing’s financial operation in 2022,and finds that,first,the total financial volume maintains a reasonable growth,which provides strong support for stabilizing the capital’s economic fundamentals and high-quality development. The balance of RMB loans increased by 10.9% year-on-year,with an increase of a record high;Second,the scale of social financing has increased reasonably,and the financial industry has significantly strengthened its support for the real economy;Third,credit support for key areas and weak links of the real economy continued to increase,and the quality and efficiency of services for the real economy further improved;Fourth,the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans fell to 3.09%,a new record low,and more than 40 billion yuan was transferred to the real economy through the downward trend of loan interest rates throughout the year. We need to pay attention to the challenges that the economic recovery process is less than expected,the new regulations restrict the credit of financial companies,the scale of green loans for cleaner production,ecological environment and other industries needs to be improved,and the short-term debt repayment pressure is relatively large. To provide strong financial support for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.

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    作者简介
    高菲:高菲,经济学博士,中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处干部,主要研究方向为宏观经济、国际金融等。
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