您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    消费、投资和主导产业视角下的北京市宏观经济形势分析与展望

    摘要

    2022年,北京市经济发展呈现“平稳开局、深度下跌、微弱恢复”的走势,全年地区生产总值顶住压力实现0。7%正增长。从消费看,总体不及全国,尚未恢复到疫情前水平,服务消费领域的潜能有待释放;从投资看,制造业和房地产好于全国,但亟须拓展新的投资空间;从主导产业看,电子、汽车、医药三大高端制造业和金融、信息、科技三大现代服务业呈整体下滑态势。展望2023年,世界经济衰退风险明显上升,国内经济恢复发展的基础还不稳固,北京要持续出台扩内需稳经济促恢复政策,巩固“三高”,提升“三基”,实施“三策”,稳住经济增长基本盘,开拓经济增长新空间,预计全年经济增长5%左右。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    In 2022,Beijing economy showed a trend of “steady start,deep decline and weak recovery”,with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%. From the perspective of consumption,it has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level and is generally lower than the national level. The potential of service consumption needs to be released. From the perspective of investment,manufacturing and real estate are generally better than the national level,but needs to expand new space. From the perspective of industry,the three high-end manufacturing industries of electronics,automobiles and pharmaceuticals and the three modern service industries of finance,information and technology are in an overall decline. Looking forward to 2023,the risk of world recession will rise significantly,and the foundation for domestic economic recovery and development is not yet stable. Beijing will continue to introduce policies to stabilize the economy and promote recovery,consolidate the “three high”,improve the “three basic”,and implement the “three policies”. The development momentum of high-end manufacturing industry is expected to be fully enhanced,the competitiveness of the “Beijing service” brand is further consolidated and enhanced. Stabilize the fundamentals of economic growth and expand the potential space for economic growth. The economy is expected to grow by around 5% for the year.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    崔岩:崔岩,博士,北京市发展改革政策研究中心、北京市经济社会发展研究院战略规划所副研究员,主要研究方向:宏观经济、城市战略。
    刘作丽:刘作丽,博士,北京市发展改革政策研究中心、北京市经济社会发展研究院战略规划所所长,副研究员,主要研究方向:城市与区域经济、战略规划。
    王术华:王术华,博士,北京市发展改革政策研究中心、北京市经济社会发展研究院战略规划所副所长,副研究员,主要研究方向:宏观经济、财政经济。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告