劳动力供给与需求关系是影响就业形势的主要因素,分析和预测中长期劳动力供给状况,是政府宏观经济决策的重要基础,也是分析把握全省经济运行中诸多重大问题的前提。本文运用第七次全国人口普查数据和历史数据分析得出2010~2020年全省劳动力总量呈减少趋势,主要减少在农村,而城镇在增加。对四川省劳动力变动趋势进行分析后发现,省内劳动力向成都市聚集趋势明显,劳动力年龄结构老化趋势明显,农村劳动力老化尤其严重,劳动力素质进一步提升,农村转移劳动力总量增速趋缓,农民工省内就业持续增加。未来十年,全省劳动年龄人口总体呈减少趋势,农村劳动力呈减少趋势,城镇劳动力稳步增长、劳动力供给仍然充足但老化趋势进一步增强,经济活动人口呈减少趋势,降幅大于劳动年龄人口。最后,本文提出大力实施就业优先政策、稳定就业形势,综合施策缓解城乡结构性就业矛盾,多渠道促进农村劳动力就地就近转移就业,重视老龄劳动力资源的开发和利用等针对性的对策建议。
<<The relationship between labor supply and demand is the major factor which affects employment situation. Analyzing and forecasting the medium-term and long-term labor supply is an important basis for government’s macroeconomic decisions as well as a prerequisite for grasping major issues in economic operation. By analyzing the data of the 7th National Population Census and other historical figures,this paper concludes that the total labor force in Sichuan from 2010 to 2020 is decreasing,mainly in rural areas while increasing in urban areas. Besides,by analyzing provincial labor force changes,it is obvious that labor force tends to gather in Chengdu. The aging of labor force is apparent and particularly acute in rural areas. The quality of the labor force has been further improved. The growth rate of total labor force transferred from rural areas tends to slow down with the employment of migrant workers increasing continuously. Furthermore,combined with economic development,it is noted that the working age population in Sichuan will continue to decrease in the next decade with rural labor force downsizing continuously while urban labor force growing steadily. The labor force supply is still sufficient,but the aging trend is further enhanced. Economically active population is decreasing,and the degree of reduction is greater than that of the working age population. Eventually,this paper proposes to vigorously implement the employment priority policy,stabilize employment situation,take comprehensive measures to alleviate structural employment contradictions between urban and rural areas,promote the employment transfer of rural labor force through multiple channels,and pay attention to the development and utilization of aging labor resources.
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