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    2022年苏格兰第二次独立公投:动向与困境

    摘要

    近两年来,伴随苏格兰民族党在全国和地方议会选举稳住地区第一大党地位,苏格兰第二次独立公投也出现新的动向。苏格兰民族党利用脱欧和疫情为二次公投积极造势,不顾英国政府反对,于2022年6月正式提出二次独立公投的路线图。然而,二次独立公投在程序上仍存在较大不确定性,苏格兰民意也未出现支持独立的明确倾向。未来几年,英国与苏格兰地方政府将围绕二次独立公投继续对峙博弈,苏格兰民族党虽难如期在2023年举行二次独立公投,但苏格兰不确定的宪政,未来将继续为英国制造挑战。

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    Abstract

    In the past couple of years,with the Scottish National Party consolidating its position as the dominant party in Scotland in both national and local elections,the bid for a second independence referendum gained momentum. The SNP took advantage of Brexit and the pandemic to actively campaign for a second referendum. Despite the opposition of the British government,the SNP formally proposed a roadmap for a second independence referendum in June 2022. However,there is still considerable procedural uncertainty around a second independence referendum and no clear swing in Scottish public opinion in favour of independence. In the next few years,the UK and the Scottish local government will continue to fight over the second independence referendum. Although it is difficult for the Scottish National Party to hold the second independence referendum as scheduled in 2023,the constitutional uncertainties in Scotland will continue to create challenges for the UK in the future.

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    作者简介
    张蓓:张蓓,博士,中国国际问题研究院欧洲所助理研究员,主要研究领域为英国政治与外交。
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