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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2022年吉林省对外贸易形势分析与展望

    摘要

    当前,百年变局叠加世纪疫情,全球通胀超出预期,世界经济复苏基础脆弱,需求增长缓慢,地缘冲突外溢效应持续,影响国际贸易流动,主要经济体之间经贸摩擦加剧,贸易保护主义上升,“经济民族主义”抬头,产业链供应链安全面临挑战,外贸形势复杂严峻、不确定性上升。同时也要看到,中国经济长期向好态势没有改变,为外贸保稳提质提供有利条件,各项稳外贸政策持续落地见效,激发外贸产业韧性和活力,RCEP生效实施,红利持续释放为外贸发展带来机遇。2022年以来,吉林省坚持多措并举,聚焦外贸促进与升级,全力推动外贸发展。同时,吉林省外贸发展也面临运费成本高、物流和人员流动不畅、原材料价格波动幅度大、海外需求减少等困难和挑战。新形势下,吉林省应进一步加强外贸企业生产经营保障,提升出口规模效益,优化进口商品结构,加快提升业态模式,优化贸易方式结构,多元化抓订单拓市场,促进贸易通关便利化,强化财政金融信保政策支持,全力推动全省外贸发展提质增量。

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    Abstract

    At present,century-old changes are compounded by the world epidemic,global inflation is exceeding expectations,the foundation of the world economic recovery is fragile,demand growth is slow,the spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts continues,affecting international trade flows,economic and trade frictions among major economies are intensifying,trade protectionism is on the rise,“economic nationalism” is rising,the security of the industrial chain supply chain is facing challenges,and the foreign trade situation is complex,severe,and uncertain. At the same time,it should be noted that China’s long-term economic trend has not changed,providing favorable conditions for maintaining stability and improving quality of foreign trade. Various policies for stabilizing foreign trade have continued to take effect,stimulating the resilience and vitality of the foreign trade industry. RCEP has taken effect,and the continued release of dividends has brought opportunities for the development of foreign trade. Since 2022,Jilin Province has insisted on taking multiple measures at the same time,focusing on the promotion and upgrading of foreign trade,and fully promoting the development of foreign trade. At the same time,Jilin’s foreign trade development also faces difficulties and challenges such as high freight costs,poor logistics and personnel flow,large fluctuations in raw material prices,and reduced overseas demand. Under the new situation,Jilin Province should further strengthen the production and operation guarantee of foreign trade enterprises,improve the export scale efficiency,optimize the structure of imported goods,accelerate the upgrading of business model,optimize the trade mode structure,diversify the order to expand the market,promote the facilitation of trade clearance,strengthen financial and credit protection policy support,and make every effort to promote the development of foreign trade in the province to improve the quality and increase.

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    作者简介
    邵冰:邵冰,经济学博士,吉林省社会科学院研究员,研究方向为东北亚区域经济。
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