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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    大变局催生欧洲大转型

    摘要

    2021年欧洲的关键词是“复苏”和“自主”:在新冠疫情中力推经济复苏,在大国地缘政治竞争中争取自主。目前,欧洲正处在世纪疫情和百年大变局之中,新冠疫情放大了欧洲治理痼疾,一体化进一步失衡发展,国际实力地位持续下降,大国竞争的加剧和地缘政治的回归催生欧洲战略焦虑。在此形势下,欧洲领导人大力推动欧盟经济转型和外交转型,以应对内外两大变局。俄乌冲突的爆发对欧洲安全和经济秩序造成严重冲击,进一步刺激欧洲地缘政治的“觉醒”并使转型更具紧迫性。所谓经济转型主要包括数字化转型和绿色转型,将应对气候变化和实现数字化作为主要施政方向和后疫情时代的主要发展目标。外交转型意味着,欧洲将重新定位其国际角色,体现为战略自主与依赖盟友两条路径的此消彼长,经济利益、地缘政治与价值观外交共频变动,以及印太战略与欧洲大周边外交的平衡发展。欧洲两大转型是国际形势变化与欧洲内部变迁双重逻辑推动的产物,对欧洲以及欧洲与外部世界的关系将产生重大影响。 <<
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    Abstract

    “Recovery” and “autonomy” dominated the European agenda in 2021:to push for economic recovery amid the COVID-19 pandemic,and to strive for strategic autonomy along the growing competition of great powers. Currently,Europe is going through a very challenging period,for instance,European governance problems are intensified,European differentiated integration is further magnified,the international role of the EU is shrinking,and the geopolitical competition of great powers is strengthening,which undoubtedly exacerbate the strategic anxiety of Europe. Under the circumstances,European leaders have stepped up efforts to promote the EU’s economic and strategic transformation,thereby effectively tackling with challenges at home and abroad. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict exerted a serious impact on European security and economic order,further stimulating Europe’s geopolitical awakening and accelerating Europe’s transformation. Specifically,economic transformation mainly refers to digital and green transformation,thereby enhancing economic competitiveness with twin green and digital goals. Regarding strategic transformation,Europe would re-orientate its global actorness,with the presence of trade-off between strategic autonomy and dependent on alliance,concurrency among economic interests,geopolitical Europe and normative power,re-balance between Europe’s Indo-Pacific strategy and neighbourhood relationship. In sum,the two great transformations in Europe are driven by significant worsening of strategic environments in terms of global and Europe level,and consequently,they have significant impacts on Europe and its relationship with other parts of the world.

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    作者简介
    冯仲平:冯仲平,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所所长,研究员,博士生导师,主要研究领域为欧洲战略问题、欧洲一体化、中欧关系、欧美关系等。
    贺之杲:贺之杲,法学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为欧洲政治与国际关系、欧洲一体化与比较地区主义。
    杨成玉:杨成玉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为欧洲经济、中欧经贸关系及法国研究。
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