更多>>
课题组动态
更多>>
皮书作者
热点推荐：
双循环
在动态气候背景下，合理区分气候变化和人类活动对人地复合生态系统的影响，是区域系统管理的迫切需要。尤其是在环境快速变化的高山地区，人类活动的驱动贡献存在广泛争议。利用改进的集成生物圈模型（IBISi），本文建立了一种以当前生态系统潜在净初级生产力（NPPP）为基准，量化动态气候下人类活动驱动贡献的多维评估方法。一般认为，遥感监测的实际净初级生产力（NPPA）是自然力（气候变化、自然恢复力）和人类活动共同影响的结果，而模型模拟的净初级生产力是仅受自然力影响的结果，两者之差即为人类活动影响。该方法首先通过NPPP与NPPA的差值定量评估人类活动对生态系统产生的绝对影响（H），然后通过线性回归分别获得NPPP、NPPA和H的变化趋势，进而基于人类活动和自然力影响的变化趋势量化两者各自的驱动方向和贡献率，最终实现对人类活动影响的系统定量评估。本文以祁连山典型的人地复合生态系统区——互助土族自治县为例，验证了IBISi模型在山地区域的准确性和可靠性，并分别计算了人类活动和自然力对NPP变化的贡献，继而探讨了生态环境变化的主导驱动力。案例分析表明，该方法能够较好地揭示评估期内人类活动对区域生态系统影响的大小、方向、变化趋势和驱动贡献，可为在区域尺度下评价人地复合生态系统的生态治理成效或人为破坏程度提供定量参考，为制定合理的生态修复策略提供科学依据和指导。
<<In a dynamic climate context，a reasonable distinction of effect between climate change and human activities on human-earth complex ecosystem is an urgent need for regional system management. The contribution of human activities，especially in alpine regions with rapidly changing environments，has been widely debated. Using an improved integrated biosphere simulator （IBISi），this paper has established a multidimensional assessment method to quantify the contribution driven by human activities under dynamic climates based on the current potential net primary productivity （NPPP） of ecosystems. It is generally accepted that the actual NPP （NPPA） monitored by remote sensing is the result of the combined effect of natural forces （climate change，natural resilience） and human activities，while the model-simulated NPPP is the result of natural forces only. Therefore，the difference between the two is the effect of human activities. The method first quantitatively assesses the absolute impact （H） of human activities on ecosystems through the difference between NPPP and NPPA，obtains the trends of NPPP，NPPA and H respectively through linear regression，and then quantifies respective driving directions and contribution rates of human activities and natural forces based on their changing trends to finally achieve a systematic quantitative assessment on the effect of human activities. This paper has verified the accuracy and reliability of the IBISi model in a mountainous area by taking a typical human-earth complex ecosystem in the Qilian Mountain，namely Huzhu Tu Autonomous County as an example，calculated the contributions of human activities and natural forces to the changes in NPP，respectively，and then explored the dominant driving forces of ecological environment changes. The case study has showed that this method could better reveal the magnitude，direction，change trend and driven contribution of human activities on regional ecosystems during the assessment period，provide quantitative reference for evaluating the ecological management of human-earth complex ecosystems or the degree of artificial destruction at the regional scale，and provide scientific basis and guidance for formulating reasonable ecological restoration strategies.
<<
