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李培林
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    “双碳”背景下河西走廊资源型产业发展研究

    摘要

    本文基于河西走廊自然资源的禀赋概况,对河南走廊资源型产业发展的“卡脖子”问题进行了客观的探讨与分析。通过灰色预测模型对祁连山国家公园甘肃片区各县(区)2017~2060年碳排放与植被碳汇能力数据进行计算和预测,并通过IPAT-LMDI模型对碳排放进行人口、经济、技术层面的分解解析。在阐明“双碳”背景下河西走廊地区资源型产业发展机遇与挑战之后,对各个资源型产业发展提出了比较有针对性的建议,以期在推动本土产业发展的前提下,助力河西走廊以及甘肃早日实现“双碳”目标。

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    Abstract

    The Qilian Mountain,as an important ecological security barrier in the west of China,is an important source of water in the Yellow River basin and a Based on the endowment of natural resources in the Hexi Corridor,this paper provides an objective discussion and analysis of vital difficulties for development of resource-based industry within the region at present. The carbon emission and vegetation carbon sequestration data of the counties in the Qilian Mountains National Park Gansu Area for 2017-2060 have been calculated and predicted by the gray predictive model,and the IPAT-LMDI model has been used to decompose and analyze carbon emissions at the demographic,economic,and technological levels. After clarifying the opportunities and challenges for the development of resource-based industry in the Hexi Corridor under the background of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”,this paper has put forward more targeted policies and recommendations for the development of each resource-based industry,in order to promote the development of local industries and help the Hexi Corridor and Gansu Province to achieve the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” early.

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    作者简介
    丁文广:丁文广,兰州大学资源环境学院教授、博士生导师,甘肃省人民政府参事,主要研究方向为环境政策、环境管理与国家公园。
    王龙:王龙,兰州大学资源环境学院环境科学与工程专业。
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