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    中国粮食作物供种安全形势、挑战与对策研究

    摘要

    本报告根据历年数据,在分析粮食作物种子供需、进出口、国家储备和企业库存、市场价格等基本特征的基础上,计算了不同约束条件下三大粮食作物的种子自给率。研究得出中国杂交水稻、常规水稻、玉米和小麦的自给率都处于较高水平,2013年以来上述四种作物的最低自给率分别为119。9%、105。3%、110。6%、132。5%。但是,中国种子供给方面仍然存在种子品种繁多且中端同品系同质化严重,优质品种供不应求;制种区域相对集中,易受极端气候影响;制种区域与用种区域间隔偏远,流通压力较大;制种成本不断上升,制种企业和粮农收益减少;制种计划难以预料市场行情,导致库存剩余或者脱销等问题与挑战。为提高种子供给能力,应该坚持市场导向,采取增加高质量种子供给,完善供种应急保障能力,提升制种的现代化技术水平,降低种子生产成本,鼓励企业拓展国外制种市场等措施。

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    Abstract

    The security of food crop seed supply is an important basis for ensuring national food security. This report calculates the seed self-sufficiency rates of three major food crops under different constraints based on historical dimensional data and an analysis of the basic characteristics of food crop seed supply and demand,import and export,national reserves and enterprise stocks,as well as market prices. The results show that the self-sufficiency rates of hybrid rice,conventional rice,maize and wheat in China are all at high levels,with the lowest self-sufficiency rates of the four crops since 2013 being 119.9 percent,105.3 percent,110.6 percent and 132.5 percent,respectively. However,China’s seed supply still suffers from a wide range of seed varieties and serious homogenization of the same strains in the mid-range,resulting in a shortage of high-quality varieties in supply. Seed production areas are relatively concentrated and highly susceptible to extreme climate impacts. The separation between seed production areas and seed use areas is remote and the circulation pressure is high. The costs of seed production continue to rise,and the income of seed production enterprises and farmers decreases. It is difficult to predict market conditions in seed production plans,resulting in inventory surplus or out of stock. In order to improve the seed supply capacity,China should take market-oriented measures to increase the supply of high-quality seeds,enhance the emergency security capacity for seed supply,improve the modern technology level of seed production,reduce seed production costs,and encourage enterprises to expand foreign seed production markets.

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    作者简介
    景琦:景琦,农学硕士,全国农业技术推广服务中心,主要研究方向为种子供需与风险监测预警。
    王术坤:王术坤,管理学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为农业政策评估和农业技术经济。
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