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谢伏瞻
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    2022年畜牧业经济形势分析及2023年展望

    摘要

    与2021年相比,2022年畜产品产量实现稳步增长,其中牛奶和猪肉产量增幅较大,分别增长6。8%和4。6%。猪肉、羊肉、禽肉和乳制品进口量均有不同程度下降,降幅分别为52。6%、12。8%、16。2%和16。3%;牛肉进口量增长明显,增长了15。3%。生猪生产总体稳定,猪肉价格波动幅度收窄;鸡肉价格上涨明显,牛肉、羊肉及生鲜乳价格总体稳定。2022年度内生猪养殖效益呈现震荡状态,奶牛养殖盈利状况整体呈现下降趋势。展望2023年,随着国内畜产品需求的快速恢复和畜牧业高质量发展的稳步推进,畜产品供需形势整体较为宽松,需求恢复和增长将成为推动畜牧业发展的重要动能。预计2023年生猪供应量整体稳中有增,供给稳定性将显著提升;牛羊产业生产将进一步发展,牛羊肉供给能力稳步增强,价格将在高位震荡;禽肉产量将有所增加,需求对价格具有较强支撑;乳制品消费需求将有所恢复,养殖成本保持高位运行,乳制品进口小幅增长。

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    Abstract

    In 2022,the output of livestock products achieved a steady growth,with a significant increase in the output of milk and pork by 6.8 percent and 4.6 percent,respectively,compared to the previous year. The total volume of imports of pork,mutton,poultry meat and dairy products decreased to varying degrees,with declines of 52.6 percent,12.8 percent,16.2 percent and 16.3 percent,respectively. The imports of beef increased significantly by 15.3 percent. The overall production of pigs remained stable with smaller price fluctuations in pork. Chicken prices increased significantly,while the prices for beef,mutton,and raw milk remained relatively stable. In 2022,the benefits of pig breeding fluctuated,while the profitability of dairy farming demonstrated an overall downward trend. In 2023,with the rapid recovery of domestic demand for livestock products and the steady progress of a high-quality development of animal husbandry,the overall supply and demand situation for livestock products will be relatively relaxed,and demand recovery and growth will become a critical driving force for promoting the industry’s development. It is expected that the overall supply of live pigs will increase steadily,and the supply stability will significantly improve. The production of cattle and sheep industries will further develop,resulting in a steady increase in the supply capacity of beef and mutton,and prices will fluctuate at high levels. Poultry meat production will increase,with a strong demand that supports its prices. The consumer demand for dairy products is set to recover,breeding costs are expected to remain high,resulting in a slight increase in dairy imports.

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    作者简介
    罗千峰:罗千峰,管理学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为畜牧业经济、农业经济理论与政策。
    韩磊:韩磊,管理学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为畜牧业经济、农产品市场。
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