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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2022年中国房地产市场发展回顾与2023年展望

    摘要

    回顾2022年,销售低迷,房价承压,土拍分化,投资失速,融资不振,违约频发……处在加速下行中的房地产行业迎来大变局,并成为除疫情因素之外,扼住中国经济“咽喉”的另一只“手”。都说房地产有周期,诚然,但也不尽如此。当下,房地产市场运行的底层逻辑已经改变,长期因素与短期矛盾交织。展望2023年,房地产是扩内需、稳增长、保民生之关键,供需两端政策仍有边际优化空间,但销售端量价易企稳、难反弹,开发投资面临较大下行压力,房企信用风险有所缓释但分层明显,行业在出清后逐步向新发展模式过渡。

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    Abstract

    Looking back to the year 2022,sluggish sales,pressure on housing prices,polarization of land auctions,stalling investment,sluggish financing and frequent defaults…… the real estate industry,which has been in an accelerating downturn,has become another hand holding the throat of the Chinese economy in addition to the COVID-19 pandemic. People often say the real estate industry has cycles. It’s true but cannot explain everything. At the present stage,the underlying logic of the real estate market has changed. Long-term factors are intertwined with short-term contradictions. Looking ahead to the year 2023,the real estate industry is the key to stable growth,expand domestic demand and ensuring people’s livelihood of China. There is still marginal space for optimization of policies at both sides of supply and demand. The volume and price of sales would be easy to stabilize but difficult to rebound. Investment in real estate would be facing great downward pressure. The credit risks of real estate enterprises would be eased while stratification clearly. The industry would transition to a new development mode after the market clearing gradually.

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    作者简介
    吕梁:吕梁,中国社会科学院大学经济学院博士研究生,现供职于中国建投投资研究院,主要研究方向为宏观经济与金融资管等。
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