2022年,在疫情反复、俄乌冲突激化和美联储持续大幅度加息的宏观背景下,我国资本市场所受影响较深、波动加大。我国股票市场在内外部环境影响下震荡下行,债券市场“前牛后熊”终走平,大宗商品价格整体涨幅较大。2023年,全球通胀水平或仍处于高位,欧美降息预期先行实际未必能启动,全球经济增速继续偏低,我国经济企稳复苏,稳增长政策力度加大,货币政策稳中趋松,财政政策更加积极,但地缘冲突可能是最大的“黑天鹅”。2023年,我国股票市场有望聚力波动上行,债券市场利率先下行后上升,大宗商品各品类的价格涨跌互现。
<<In 2022,against the backdrop of repeated outbreaks of COVID-19,the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve’s continuous and substantial interest rate hike,China’s capital market was deeply affected and experienced increased volatility. The Chinese stock market fluctuated down under the influence of internal and external environment,the bond market finally leveled off,and the overall bulk commodities rose significantly. In 2023,global inflation may still be at a high level,and the anticipated interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States may not be able to start in practice. Global economic growth will continue to be on the low side. China’s economy will stabilize recovery,strengthen policies to stabilize growth,loosen monetary policy while maintaining stability,and make fiscal policy more active. In 2023,China’s stock market is expected to gather force fluctuation up,bond market interest rates first down and then up,commodity categories are mixed.
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