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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2022年全球宏观经济回顾与2023年展望

    摘要

    2022年是风险挑战较多和市场跌宕起伏的一年,全球经济增速受多重负面冲击而整体呈现下降态势,美国经济增速下滑,欧洲经济大幅下滑,日本经济波动较大,多数新兴市场国家经济的发展步履蹒跚。全球经济增速放缓是2022年主旋律,2022年10月,IMF预计全年GDP增长率为3。2%。展望2023年,俄乌冲突有望缓和,国际政治格局暗流涌动;全球通胀水平有所下降,但仍处于高位;金融条件收缩步伐放慢,美元加息或将缓和;贸易环境的不确定性增加。综合来看,2023年,全球经济将延续2022年的放缓趋势,呈现温和衰退的态势,全年GDP增长率约为2%。主要国家经济硬着陆的风险增加,美国经济增速将放缓至0。5%左右,欧元区经济衰退程度更加严重,日本经济在低位徘徊,新兴市场国家的经济基本面或好于美欧。

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    Abstract

    2022 is a year with many risks,challenges and market fluctuations. The global economic growth is in a downward trend due to multiple negative impacts. The U.S. economy is in a downward trend,the European economy is in a sharp decline,the Japanese economy has increased volatility,and the economies of most emerging countries are faltering. Slowing growth is the main theme in 2022,and the annual growth is expected to be about 3.2%. Looking forward to 2023,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to ease,and the undercurrent of international political situation is surging;global inflation has declined,but it is still at a high level;the pace of the contraction of financial conditions will slow down,and the violent interest rate increase of the US dollar may ease;the uncertainty of trade environment has increased. To sum up,the global economy will continue the slowdown trend of 2022 in 2023,showing a mild recession,with an annual growth of 2%. The risk of hard landing in major countries is increased. The United States will slow down to 0.5%. The recession in the euro area is more severe. Japan’s economy is hovering at a low level. The fundamentals of emerging countries may be better than those of the United States and Europe.

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    作者简介
    文玉春:文玉春,金融学博士,中国建投投资研究院业务经理,主要研究方向为产业发展与产业投资。
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