This study aims to forecast the domestic and inbound tourism demand for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area（GBA）during 2022～2026 using the scenario-based Delphi adjustment approach. In the first stage，the ARDL-ECM is utilized to generate the baseline forecasts；in the second stage，eight Delphi experts are assembled and asked to adjust the baseline forecasts considering the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism demand in three scenarios. The prediction results show that provided the COVID-19 pandemic does not appear，the number of tourist arrivals in the GBA will increase steadily and reach 588 million by 2026. However，in view of the continued impact of the pandemic on the tourism demand，based on the scenario forecasts，the total number of tourists in the GBA will return to the pre-pandemic levels in 2023，2024，and 2025 in three scenarios，respectively. Domestic tourism demand has shown a gradual growth trend while the recovery of inbound tourism demand is relatively slow，but it is predicted to increase sharply with the pandemic under control. The scenario forecasts provide significant theoretical support and practical reference for the recovery，rejuvenation and development of the tourism industry in the GBA post pandemic.