迎峰度夏历来是电力保供的关键时期,新能源作为未来新型电力系统的主要组成部分,同样面临安全保供的“大考”。由于风、光发电的不确定性和波动性,在夏季高温用电负荷持续攀升情况下,新能源实际支撑能力不能有效满足负荷大幅增长、系统实时平衡和连续运行的需求,高比例新能源的电力系统保供能力面临较大挑战。本文依托大数据手段对2018年以来河南省风、光发电出力五年期样本数据进行分析,测算新能源的有效供给能力,评估度夏保供期间新能源的电力平衡支撑能力,针对度夏保供关键时段新能源可信出力率偏低的特点,探讨多措并举提升电力保供增供的对策建议。
<<The peak-load during summer has always been a critical period for power supply,new energy as the main component of the future new power system,also facing the “great test” of safety supply. Owing to the uncertainty and volatility of wind and light power generation,the actual support capacity of new energy cannot effectively meet the needs of large load growth,real-time system balance and continuous operation in the summer when the high temperature electricity load continues to rise,and the power system with a high proportion of new energy is facing greater challenges in terms of its ability to maintain supply. This paper relies on big data means to analyze the five-year sample data of wind and light power generation output in Henan Province since 2018,to measure the effective supply capacity of new energy,to assess the power balance support capacity of new energy during the summer supply,and to explore countermeasure suggestions to improve power supply and increase supply by multiple measures in view of the low credible power output rate of new energy during the critical time of summer supply.
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