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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    阿根廷:经济快速复苏,执政挑战加大

    摘要

    2021年,阿根廷的经济社会环境大大改善,但政府面临的执政挑战明显增加。政治上,执政联盟中期选举失利,在参议院失去简单多数席位,在众议院与反对党联盟形成均势,这无疑将加大政府的改革阻力。费尔南德斯总统不得不面对两大政治挑战:执政联盟的分裂风险和极右翼力量的崛起。经济上,历经三年连续衰退后,阿根廷经济恢复增长且达到2014年以来的最高纪录。经济增长主要是由不断释放的消费需求和对外贸易条件的改善驱动的。然而,财政高赤字、汇率震荡、巨额外债和高通胀仍然是阿根廷短期内难以克服的挑战,并将限制2022年阿根廷的经济复苏进程。受经济高增长的驱动,阿根廷的减贫形势显著改善,贫困率和极端贫困率双双下降。经济环境的改善激发劳动力市场的活力,失业率大大下降,就业率显著提高。然而,疫情反复严重影响阿根廷的社会生活,疫情治理低效也日益加剧社会不满情绪。在对外关系方面,阿根廷延续了平衡、多元和务实主义的外交政策,在维持同西方传统伙伴友好关系的同时,特别加强了同墨西哥的协调与合作,以期共同引领拉美左翼的回归和整个大陆的团结。 <<
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    Abstract

    In 2021,Argentina significantly improved its economic and social situations,but was facing greater governing challenges. Politically,the ruling coalition lost the midterm elections,losing control of the Senate,which will undoubtedly create obstacles for the federal government to implement necessary reforms. President Fernández also has to face two major political challenges:the risks of split of Frente de Todos and the rise of far-right conservatives. In fact,after consecutive three-year recessions,Argentina witnessed its first economic growth,reaching the highest record since 2014. The growth is mainly driven by the increasing consumption and expanding export. However,high fiscal deficit,fluctuated exchange rate,overburdened foreign debt and soaring inflation are still challenging the prospect of economic recovery in 2022. Thanks to the rapid economic recovery,both poverty and extreme poverty decreased greatly. Meanwhile,the rapid growth also stimulated the dynamics of labor market,reducing the unemployment while promoting the employment significantly. However,the recurrence of COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected Argentine society,and the inefficiency of epidemic control ignited social discontent. In terms of foreign relations,Argentina sustained its well-balanced,diversified and pragmatic policy. While maintaining its traditional friendship with the West,Argentina strengthened its cooperation with moderate-left Mexico in order to promote and support the return of Latin American left and the unity of the whole continent.

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    作者简介
    郭存海:郭存海,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所社会文化研究室研究员、阿根廷研究中心执行主任,主要研究方向为拉美社会和文化及阿根廷。
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