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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2021~2022年拉丁美洲和加勒比地区形势:困局与变局叠加,大国对...

    摘要

    新冠肺炎疫情仍是影响拉美政治、经济、社会和外交局势的核心因素。受疫情影响,拉美国家普遍面临执政难度攀升、政局波动加剧等挑战,政治生态周期也因疫情的干扰出现“向左回转”的态势,左、右政治力量博弈以及新兴政治力量崛起也有可能孕育新一轮的政治变化。尽管经济出现“补偿性”的反弹,但是高通胀、双赤字、高债务、财政和货币政策“两难”等问题均反映出拉美此轮经济复苏的脆弱性和不确定性。与此同时,劳动力市场的持续低迷使“返贫”问题成为拉美国家的现实挑战。由于纾困政策力度减弱,拉美国家社会结构呈现出较明显的向下流动态势,贫富分化在中短期内或将恶化。拉美外交的复杂性同样有所上升,地区一体化活力虽有回暖,但凝聚力缺失问题尚未根本改善。美拉关系虽有所加强,但美国排斥性的政策导向并未在拉美获得预期回应。欧盟、俄罗斯和日本对拉美的政策侧重差异较大,尤其是日本同样体现出排斥性的政策思路。中拉合作依然延续高效节奏,在取得一系列突破的同时,“全球发展倡议”也成为中国谋划下阶段中拉关系的核心思路。

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    Abstract

    The COVID-19 epidemic is still the core factor affecting the political,economic,social and diplomatic situation of Latin America. Owing to this reason,Latin America countries are generally encountering with challenges,such as the rising difficulties of governance,the intensification of political fluctuations. The political cycle is shown as “returning to the left”,due to the interference of the epidemic. At the same time,the game between left and right political forces,and the rise of emerging political forces,may also breed a new round of political changes. Although the economy has shown a compensatory rebound,problems such as high inflation,double deficits,high indebtedness,and the dilemma of fiscal and monetary policies,reflect definitely the vulnerability and uncertainty of the current economic recovery in Latin America. The continuous downturn of the labor market,makes the poverty-returning phenomenon been a realistic challenge for Latin American region. Due to the weakening of the Relief Policies,the social structure shows a more obvious downward mobility trend,and the polarization between the rich and the poor may worsen in the medium and short term. The complexity of Latin American diplomacy has also increased. Although the vitality of regional integration has warmed up,the regional cohesion has not been fundamentally improved. The rhythm of U.S.-Latin America relations has accelerated,but the U.S.’s exclusive policy orientation has not received the expected response in Latin America. The European Union,Russia and Japan have great differences in their policy priorities in Latin America,especially Japan,whose polices to Latin America,has more exclusive contents than before. However,China-Latin America cooperation continues to follow an efficient rhythm. While achieving a series of breakthroughs,the “Global Development Initiative” has also become the core idea for China to plan China-Latin America relations,in the next stage.

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    作者简介
    周志伟:周志伟,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所研究员,主要研究方向为拉美国际关系、巴西国别综合研究。
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