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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2021~2022年疫情防控下东南亚地区政治与经济形势

    摘要

    随着全球新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延,东南亚地区的疫情形势几经波折,各国疫情防控政策也进行了相应调整。在疫情蔓延的背景下,东南亚国家政治、经济形势发生了一系列格局性变化,除缅甸军方重返政坛外,各国政局保持了相对稳定,但也深受大选周期和政体结构的影响。2021年东南亚国家经济增速普遍由负转正,呈现恢复性增长的局面。2022年,东南亚地区疫情形势变幻莫测,新冠肺炎变异毒株的出现,使得疫情持续时间和未来走势扑朔迷离;东南亚一些国家将迎来大选年,上半年东帝汶和菲律宾大选已尘埃落定,下半年马来西亚和泰国是否举行大选仍是两大悬念;随着全球经济复苏和国际市场需求扩大,东南亚国家经济保持复苏态势,但国际大宗商品价格上涨和欧美国家收紧货币政策,引发东南亚国家通货膨胀和金融市场波动。

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    Abstract

    With the spread of COVID-19 worldwide,the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has experienced several twists and turns,and the epidemic prevention and control policies of various countries have been adjusted accordingly. In this context,the political and economic situation in Southeast Asian countries has experienced a series of structural changes. With the exception of the return of the Myanmar military to politics,the political situation in all countries remains relatively stable,even though it is also deeply affected by the election cycle and political structure. In 2021,the economic growth rate of Southeast Asian countries generally turned to positive,showing a recovery growth situation. Looking ahead to 2022,the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is still unpredictable. Due to the continued emergence of the new strain of COVID-19,the duration and future trend of the epidemic is full of uncertainties. In the first half of the year,the general elections in Timor-Leste and the Philippines have been concluded. In the second half of the year,Malaysia and Thailand will hold general elections. With the global economic recovery and the expansion of international market demand,the economy of Southeast Asian countries will continue to recover,but the rise of international commodity prices and the tightening of monetary policies in Europe and the United States will lead to inflation and financial market fluctuations in Southeast Asian countries.

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    作者简介
    王勤:王勤,经济学博士,厦门大学国际关系学院/南洋研究院教授,博士生导师。
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