您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    稳定宏观经济大盘、实现可持续发展的主要挑战与政策建议

    摘要

    2022年以来,中国经济发展面临巨大的困难挑战,需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱“三重压力”有增无减,疫情冲击、地产低迷、出口承压,经济增长内在动力明显不足,经济下行压力持续增大。严峻的经济形势已经严重威胁到全年经济目标的实现,威胁到经济社会大局的稳定,影响到中国可持续发展的大局。2022年经济社会可持续发展,主要面临七大挑战:一是疫情反弹加剧三重压力,供需两端承受冲击,资产负债表衰退隐忧上升;二是预期转弱恐将成为常态,各方信心亟须提振;三是输入性通胀对我国实体经济和中小企业发展带来压力;四是房地产行业尚在修复中,风险释放并未结束;五是政策预期不稳定和不一致性仍将时有发生;六是多重海外风险具有较大的外溢效应;七是地缘政治冲突带来的次生灾害不容忽视。为此,需要在政策面持续发力、多方着力,采取超常规手段,毫不犹疑地加大扩张力度,努力出台能有效提振信心、扭转市场预期、真正让经济主体有获得感的稳增长举措,极力防止经济过长时间停留在潜在经济增速或合理经济运行区间以下。 <<
    >>

    Abstract

    Since the beginning of this year,China’s economic development has faced huge difficulties and challenges. The “triple pressure” of shrinking demand,supply shock,and weakening expectations has continued unabated. The impact of the epidemic,the downturn in real estate,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,and the pressure on exports,the inherent impetus for economic growth is obviously insufficient.,the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase. The severe economic situation has seriously threatened the achievement of the annual economic goals,the stability of the overall economic and social situation,and the overall situation of China’s sustainable development. In 2022,sustainable economic and social development will face seven major challenges:first,the rebound of the epidemic will intensify the triple pressure,both supply and demand will be impacted,and the balance sheet recession will increase;second,the expected weakening may become the norm,and the confidence of all parties needs to be improved urgently. Third,imported inflation has brought pressure on the development of our real economy and small and medium-sized enterprises;fourth,the real estate industry is still under repair,and risk release has not ended;Sixth,multiple overseas risks have large spillover effects;seventh,secondary disasters brought about by geopolitical conflicts cannot be ignored. To this end,we need to continue to make efforts on the policy side,focus on various aspects,take extraordinary measures,increase expansion efforts without hesitation,and strive to introduce policies that can effectively boost confidence,reverse market expectations,and truly give economic entities a sense of gain. Measures to stabilize growth,and strive to prevent the economy from staying below the potential economic growth rate or reasonable economic operation range for an extended period of time.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    王军:王军,华泰资产管理有限公司首席经济学家,中国首席经济学家论坛理事,研究员,博士,研究方向为宏观经济,可持续发展。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告