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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2023年上海奉贤经济形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2022年以来,面对复杂严峻的国内外形势和多重超预期因素冲击,奉贤区围绕重点产业迎难而上,通过高质量招商引资,推动项目落地,经济运行得到快速恢复,显示出经济发展的良好韧性。农业产业转型升级驶入快车道,优质农产品品牌逐步打响;工业经济稳中向好,生物医药与新能源汽车产业逆势增长;服务业在经济结构中的份额持续提升;消费品市场稳步恢复,跨境电商加速发展,保障房建设有序推进。结合国内外发展形势及奉贤区经济发展的趋势,预计2023年奉贤地区生产总值将呈现稳中向好的增长态势,增速有望恢复至疫情前水平。但在疫情可能出现反复、国内外形势复杂严峻和全球经济增速放缓的背景下,奉贤区经济的发展将面临较大的风险挑战。奉贤仍需在做好疫情防控的同时,抢抓城市数字化转型加快推进、“东方美谷”产业集聚、“森林城市”生态优势等新赛道新机遇,主动融入新片区建设,持续优化营商环境,推动奉贤经济向高质量发展。

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    Abstract

    Since 2022,Fengxian District has made breakthroughs in key industries in the face of complex and severe domestic and international situations and multiple shocks beyond expectations. At the same time,Fengxian focused on key industries to meet difficulties,paid close attention to high-quality investment attraction,and promoted the implementation of projects. The economic operation has rebounded rapidly,and the resilience of economic development has been demonstrated. Specifically,the transformation and upgrading of agricultural industry has entered the fast lane,and the brand of high-quality agricultural products has been gradually launched;The industrial economy is stable and improving,and the biomedical and new energy automobile industries are growing against the trend;The contribution rate of the service industry to the economy continued to increase;The consumer goods market has recovered steadily,cross-border e-commerce has accelerated its development,and the construction of affordable housing has progressed in an orderly manner. Based on the development situation at home and abroad and the economic development trend of Fengxian District,it is estimated that Fengxian’s GDP will maintain a steady and good growth in 2023,and the growth rate is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. However,under the influence of repeated global epidemics,the complex and severe situation at home and abroad,and the slowdown of global economic growth,Fengxian District’s economic development will face greater risks and challenges in the future. In the future,Fengxian still needs to do a good job of epidemic prevention and control,seize the opportunities such as accelerating the urban digital transformation,the industrial agglomeration of “Oriental Beauty Valley”,and the ecological advantages of “Forest City”,actively integrate into the construction of new areas,continue to optimize the business environment,and promote the high-quality development of Fengxian economy.

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    作者简介
    朱平芳:朱平芳,上海社会科学院研究生院院长,数量经济研究中心主任,研究员,博士生导师,主要研究方向为计量经济学理论与方法、宏观经济预测分析与政策评价等。
    邸俊鹏:邸俊鹏,经济学博士,上海社会科学院经济研究所、数量经济研究中心副研究员,主要研究方向为计量经济学理论及其在政策评估中的应用。
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