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谢伏瞻
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    2022年俄乌冲突对全球能源格局和能源转型的影响分析

    摘要

    俄乌冲突的爆发扰乱了全球能源市场,并深刻地改变了能源地缘政治格局。俄罗斯是全球最重要的能源供应国之一,欧洲是俄罗斯化石能源出口的主要市场,能源问题成为俄乌冲突及相关的制裁与反制裁博弈的焦点。冲突爆发后,全球主要化石能源品种价格保持在高位波动,欧洲能源供应的可持续性面临严峻挑战。俄乌冲突的全球影响与能源转型的焦点均在化石能源方面,战争促使各国重新审视能源与气候政策。全球能源转型大方向虽然不会动摇,但为了保障能源供给,在短期内,部分国家退出化石能源的进程和战略或面临摇摆与倒退。在这样的背景下,我国应筑牢传统能源的供应和保障安全体系,保持推进能源低碳转型的战略定力,加速各领域非刚性原油消费退出以及合理选择国际能源合作方向与方式。

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    Abstract

    The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has set off a huge wave in the global energy market and profoundly changed the energy geopolitical pattern. Russia is one of the most important energy suppliers in the world,and Europe is the main market for Russian fossil fuels exports. Therefore,the energy issue has become the core focus of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the related sanctions and countermeasures. The conflict has boosted the already high prices of fossil energies in the world and has imposed severe challenges on the sustainability of energy supply in Europe. The global impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the focus of energy transformation are all on fossil fuel energy. The progress of the war has prompted many countries to re-examine their energy and climate policies. Although the general direction of global energy transformation will not be shaken;in order to ensure energy supply,in the short term,the process and strategies of some countries to withdraw from fossil fuel energy may face swings and setbacks. Under this background,China should build a solid supply and security system of traditional energy,maintain the strategic resolve to promote the low-carbon transformation of energy,accelerate the withdrawal of non rigid crude oil consumption in various fields and reasonably select the direction and mode of international energy cooperation.

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    作者简介
    张莹:张莹,博士,中国社会科学院生态文明研究所副研究员,研究领域为可持续发展经济学、气候变化经济学与环境政策。
    胡飞:胡飞,中国社会科学院大学投资经济系在读硕士研究生,研究领域为发展经济学、投资项目管理。
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