本报告为笔者第二次对京津冀地区进行学位需求预测,与上一次预测相比较,这次有更多的数据来源,使用了新的修正后的预测模型,将预测聚焦在义务教育阶段。本报告考虑了“三孩”政策对学位需求的影响,对2020~2028年京津冀及各区域的学位需求情况进行了预测,并且对上一次及本次的预测误差进行了分析。通过预测可知,2020~2028年,京津冀地区整体义务教育阶段学位需求变化趋势呈现倒U形,“十四五”时期为京津冀地区学位需求的主要承压期,2027年后学位需求的降幅较大。各省市中,北京市在“十四五”时期将面临较大压力;天津市义务教育阶段学位需求总体呈逐步下降的趋势,初中教育阶段在“十四五”时期存在较大压力;河北省在2026年后义务教育阶段学位需求有较大降幅。
<<In this report,the author for the second time forecasts the demand for degrees in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Compared with the previous forecast,this time,more data sources are used,new revised prediction models are used,the prediction is focused on the compulsory education stage,the impact of the “Three children” policy on the demand for degrees is considered,the demand for degrees in such regions as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2020 to 2028 is predicted,and the prediction errors in the previous article and this time are analyzed.According to the forecast,the change trend of the demand for degrees in compulsory education in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows an inverted U-shaped curve from 2020 to 2028,and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the 14th Five-Year Plan period forms the main pressure-bearing period,with an expected significant decline after 2027.Among the provinces and cities,Beijing is faced with greater pressure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period;the demand for compulsory education stage in Tianjin is gradually declining,and the junior high school education stage is under great pressure;namely,greater demand,during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.After 2026,the demand for degrees in compulsory education in Hebei will expect a big drop.
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