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    2020~2021年越南对外贸易的发展与展望

    摘要

    2020年,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球贸易和对外投资出现严重衰退,越南却实现了对外经贸领域积极向好的发展,货物贸易进出口总额增幅达5。4%,出口增长强劲,贸易顺差再创新高。出口商品结构持续改善,进口商品继续以服务于生产和出口为导向。同时,越南对外贸易也面临外贸依存度高、出口过于依赖单一市场、配套工业发展缓慢等诸多挑战。越南与中国、美国、韩国、东盟、欧盟、日本等主要贸易伙伴经贸关系稳定发展。中越贸易额创历史新高,越美贸易规模迅猛扩大,区域贸易安排的贸易创造效应不断增强。2021年,新冠肺炎疫情的持续影响预计将给越南对外贸易发展带来不确定性,但如能充分利用区域贸易安排,越南与各贸易伙伴的双边经贸关系仍然具有广阔的发展前景。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,when global trade and outbound investment suffered a severe recession due to the impact of COVID-19,Vietnam achieved positive development in the field of foreign trade and economic cooperation. The total import and export volume of goods trade increased by 5.4%,the export growth was strong,and the trade surplus reached a new high. The structure of export commodities improved,and import commodities continued to orient on serving both production and export. At the same time,Vietnam’s foreign trade also faced challenges,such as highly depending on foreign trade,over-dependence on single market for exports,and slow development of supporting industries. Vietnam’s economic and trade relations with China,the United States,the Republic of Korea,ASEAN,the European Union,Japan and other major trading partners have been developing steadily,while trade with China reached a record high,and that with the US grew rapidly,the trade creation effect of regional trade arrangements was increasing. In 2021,the continuing impact of COVID-19 is expected to bring uncertainties to Vietnam’s foreign trade development,but bilateral economic and trade relations between Vietnam and its trading partners still have broad future if regional trade arrangements can be fully utilized.

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    作者简介
    聂槟:聂槟,对外经济贸易大学外语学院越南语系主任,教授,主要研究方向为越南语言文化和政治经济。
    尚锋:尚锋,对外经济贸易大学外语学院越南语系讲师,主要研究方向为越南对外关系。
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