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    2021年德国外交形势与德国外交政策的调整趋势

    摘要

    2021年,德国外交领域的热点事件层出不穷,德美关系明显转圜,德俄关系结构性矛盾加深,中德关系竞争与合作态势同步强化,德国试水扩大印太军事存在。德国外交在2021年联邦大选之后进入新阶段,正针对日益严峻的内外部环境挑战调整战略定位和行事方法,其政策调整表现出若干趋势:一是打破危机应对模式,二是提升价值观外交分量,三是明确维护自身核心利益,四是修正政治妥协风格。在对华政策上,德国新政府地缘政治和制度竞争意识上升,采取“双重策略”应对,当前主要调整动向为:一是强化投资和贸易防御机制,二是突出民主价值观基础,三是寻求欧洲采取统一的对华战略,四是寻求加强与美国的立场协调。“后默克尔时代”德国外交政策的调整给国际政治注入了新的不确定性,不可避免地打上了中美欧俄四方博弈的时代烙印,新政府的亲欧立场对于稳定欧洲一体化大局发挥了重要作用,但欧洲内部团结说易行难,中德关系进入探索期、适应期和调整期。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,Germany’s foreign affairs were dominated by several outstanding developments. Subsequent to the previous years’ tensions,German-US relations improved noticeably,yet the structural contradictions in German-Russian relations deepened. Competition and cooperation in Sino-German relations intensified simultaneously,and Germany tried to expand its military presence in the Indo-Pacific. German foreign policy has after the 2021 federal election entered a new stage;it adjusts its strategic positions and approaches in response to the increasingly challenging internal and external environment. There are a number of policy adjustments:Firstly,Germany tries to overcome the crisis-response mode;secondly,it attempts to enhance its value diplomacy;thirdly,it aims at safeguarding its interests more clearly and in a more outspoken manner;and fourthly,it looks for a revision of the style of political compromise. In terms of China policy,the new German government is increasingly aware of geopolitical and systemic competition and in response adopts a “dual strategy”. Accordingly it has begun to strengthen investment and trade defense mechanisms,to highlight democratic values as a basis of its foreign policy,to aim at a unified China strategy for Europe,and to enhance the coordination with the United States regarding China policy. These adjustments of the “post-Merkel era” have injected new uncertainty into international politics and are inevitably linked to the interaction between China,the United States,Europe and Russia. The pro-European stance of the new government is important for European integration,but achieving European internal unity is still easier said than done. Sino-German relations have entered a period of exploration,adaptation and adjustment.

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    作者简介
    伍慧萍:伍慧萍,哲学博士,同济大学德国研究中心副主任、教授,主要研究领域为德国及欧洲政治与外交。
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