全球经济增长将明显放缓,中国仍是世界经济的发动机,但是中国经济增长率与潜在增长率以及2035年目标之间存在缺口。在疫情之后上海经济复苏呈现V型反弹,表现出一定的韧性,但外贸、地方财政和绿色生态的可持续性仍需长期关注。在一般情景下,上海2023年上半年将延续2022年缓慢复苏态势,全年经济增速呈现前高后低的态势,经济增速收敛至4。3%左右的新常态。2023年上海经济发力点和政策着力点:抓住国家宏观经济政策机遇,超前启动高能级要素;多措并举做足新消费增长点,筑牢经济增长新支撑;边际放松首套刚需购房限制,对冲房地产投资下行压力;优化小微企业融资服务,激发市场主体投资活力;抢占数字经济新赛道,挖掘经济新动能;加快推进建筑绿色更新,积极拉动绿色产业投资;做强做大上海三大先导产业,强化产业带动能级;聚力长三角一体化和五大新城建设,打开经济增长新空间。
<<The global economic growth will slow down significantly. China is still the engine of the world economy,but there is a gap between China’s economic growth and its potential growth rate and the 2035 target. The recovery of Shanghai’s economy after the epidemic showed a “V” rebound,showing a certain degree of resilience,but the sustainability of foreign trade,local finance and green ecology still needs to be concerned under uncertainty. Under the general scenario,the first half of 2023 will continue the trend of slow recovery in 2022,showing a growth trend of high front and low back,and the economic growth will converge to the new normal of about 4.3%. The driving force and policy focus of Shanghai’s economy in 2023:seize the opportunities of national macroeconomic policies,and start the high-level elements in advance;Take multiple measures to make full use of new consumption growth points and build new support for economic growth;Marginally relax the restrictions on purchasing the first set of just needed houses to hedge the downward pressure on real estate investment;Optimize financing services for small and micro enterprises and stimulate investment vitality of market entities;Seize the new track of digital economy and tap new economic momentum;Accelerate the green renewal of buildings and actively stimulate the investment in green industries;Strengthen and expand the three leading industries in Shanghai,and strengthen the industrial driving capacity;We will focus on the integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the construction of five new cities to open up new space for economic growth.
<<