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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021~2022年中东国际关系形势与展望

    摘要

    2021~2022年中东地区国际关系总的特征是:大国的中东政策进一步调整,地区国家间关系缓和明显,中东国家积极开展自主和主动外交,以应对外来因素的挑战。拜登就任总统后,对前任特朗普的中东政策进行纠偏,但实际效果有限,美国的中东战略仍然处于战略收缩过程。伊朗核问题成为美国中东政策的关注重点,但拜登政府对签署新的伊核协议的决心摇摆不定。在中东和平问题上,美国支持以色列与部分阿拉伯国家改善关系,但在推动以色列与巴勒斯坦谈判问题上无所作为。俄罗斯在中东一度的强势外交后劲不足,在叙利亚问题、伊朗核问题上有所表现,但成效有限,转而注重与土耳其、伊朗、以色列等国家改善双边关系。欧盟国家中,德国总理换主,法国总统马克龙连任,他们在中东问题上缺乏协作的动力,使得欧盟在中东热点问题上心有余而力不足。中东地区国家之间关系进一步缓和,以色列与土耳其关系大幅改善,与阿联酋等海湾阿拉伯国家的关系进一步升温,沙特与伊朗关系也总体趋缓,显示中东地区国际关系变化的内生性因素明显增强。

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    Abstract

    The general characteristics of international relations in the Middle East from 2021 to 2022 appear:the policies of major powers are further adjusted,the relations between regional countries are significantly eased,and the Middle East countries actively carry out independent and active diplomacy to meet the challenges of external factors. After Biden became the president of U.S.,he corrected the deviation of his predecessor Trump’s Middle East policy,but the actual effect was limited. The Middle East Strategy of the U.S. is still in the process of strategic contraction. The Iranian nuclear issue has become the focus of U.S.’ Middle East policy,but the Biden administration wavered in its determination to sign a new Iranian nuclear agreement. On the issue of peace in the Middle East,U.S. supports Israel and some Arab countries to improve relations but does nothing to promote negotiations between Israel and Palestine. For a time,Russia lacked strong diplomatic stamina in the Middle East. It showed some performance on the Syrian issue and the Iranian nuclear issue,but the results were limited. Instead,it focused on improving bilateral relations with Turkey,Iran,Israel and other countries. Among the EU countries,the German has changed the presidency,and Macron has been reelected as French president. Both German and French lack the motivation to cooperate on the Middle East issue,which makes the EU more willing than able on the hot issues in the Middle East. Relations between countries in the Middle East have been further eased,relations between Israel and Turkey have improved significantly,relations with Gulf Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates have further heated up,and relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has also slowed down,indicating that the endogenous factors of the changes in international relations in the Middle East have increased significantly.

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    作者简介
    余国庆:余国庆,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所研究员,主要研究方向为大国与中东关系、阿以冲突与以色列问题等。
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