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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021~2022年中东经济发展及前景

    摘要

    由于强劲的国内需求、全球经济复苏势头以及国际油价上涨,2021年中东经济增长意外上扬,并在2022年初保持了增长势头。得益于疫苗接种率高和油价上涨,石油出口国的经济增长明显好于石油进口国。但是,高企的通货膨胀率以及2022年初的疫情反弹导致经济增速放缓。乌克兰危机通过全球和直接渠道对中东地区产生重大影响,由于资源禀赋不同,对各个国家集团的影响也不尽相同。石油进口国受到大宗商品价格上涨和金融状况收紧的打击,通货膨胀加剧,外部和财政账户恶化。相比之下,石油出口国将受益于更高的能源价格,远远抵消了紧缩的金融条件和较低的旅游收入的影响。未来中东经济前景面临高度不确定性,下行风险占主导地位,且复苏前景极不均衡。

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    Abstract

    Owing to strong domestic demand,the momentum of global economic recovery and the rise of international oil prices,Middle East economic growth rose better than expected in 2021 and maintained the growth momentum after entering 2022. Benefiting from high vaccination rates and high oil prices,the economic growth of oil exporting countries is significantly better than that of oil importing countries. However,the high inflation rate and the rebound of the epidemic in early 2022 led to the economic slowdown. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict has had a significant impact on Middle East through global and direct channels. Due to different resource endowments,the impact on various groups of countries is also different. Oil importing countries have been hit by rising commodity prices and tighter financial conditions,exacerbating inflation and deteriorating external and fiscal accounts. In contrast,oil exporting countries will benefit from higher energy prices,far offsetting the impact of tighter financial conditions and lower tourism revenue. The future economic prospects of Middle East are highly uncertain,with downside risks dominating,and the recovery prospects are extremely uneven.

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    作者简介
    姜英梅:姜英梅,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为中东经济发展问题。
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