2021年以来,受剧变长波和新冠肺炎疫情影响,中东地区的政治动荡整体加剧,共和制国家动荡持续,君主制国家动荡明显增加。叙利亚、利比亚和也门三个战乱国家的战场形势逐渐稳定,但仍有较强的脆弱性,且三国政治和解进程举步维艰。多个中东国家举行全国性议会选举和总统选举,显示出相关国家的基本权力结构并未发生根本变化,但其中不乏一些具有变革意义的特点。短期来看,不少中东国家的政治不稳定风险仍然较高;长期来看,提高国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化水平是中东国家实现长治久安的根本之道。
<<Since 2021,with the long wave of upheavals and the COVID-19 epidemic,the political unrests in the Middle East have increased. The unrests in republic countries occurred usually,while the unrests in monarchies had increased significantly. The battlefield situation in Syria,Libya and Yemen has gradually stabilized,but there is still a great vulnerability,and the political reconciliation process of the three countries is very difficult. Several Middle Eastern countries held parliamentary elections and presidential elections,showing that the basic power structure of the countries has not changed fundamentally,but there are some new features. In the short term,political instability risks remain high in many Middle East countries. In the long term,modernization of system and capacity for governance is the fundamental way for Middle East countries to achieve lasting peace and stability.
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