2021年以来,动荡的中东出现了局势缓和的积极态势。叙利亚、利比亚和也门三场主要地区冲突有所降温,土耳其主动与地区国家缓和矛盾,海合会国家实现内部和解,伊朗与沙特展开对话,伊朗核问题重启谈判。地区局势呈现缓和态势是由内外多种因素推动的,能否可持续仍存在不确定性。为应对美国加速撤离而出现的地区安全真空,地区国家正加快重组联盟,多个小多边安全机制涌现。乌克兰危机的影响外溢至中东,地区国家面临疫情、粮食、能源、金融和流血冲突等多重安全危机叠加局面,严重危及地区国家的政治、经济、社会稳定,同时也给伊朗核问题和叙利亚问题等地区危机的解决带来了新的不确定因素。
<<Since 2021,the turbulent ME region has shown a positive trend of détente:the three major regional conflicts in Syria,Libya and Yemen have cooled down;Turkey took the initiative to ease tensions with regional countries;Reconciliation among GCC countries;Iran began to talk with Saudi Arabia;Negotiations for the U.S. to rejoin the JCPOA began. The trend of regional détente is driven by a variety of internal and external factors,and its sustainability remains uncertain. In response to the regional security vacuum created by the accelerated withdrawal of the United States,countries in the region are speeding up the restructuring of alliances,and several small multilateral security mechanisms have emerged. The Ukraine Crisis has spilled over into the Middle East,exposing countries in the region to multiple security crises,including the epidemic,food,energy,financial and bloody conflicts. This has seriously jeopardized the political,economic and social stability of countries in the region,and brought new uncertainties to the resolution of regional crises,including the Iranian nuclear issue and the Syrian war.
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