本报告从育龄妇女的角度对北京市未来人口变化趋势进行解读,并对北京市常住育龄妇女的状况进行多维度的人口学变量描述,以揭示北京市人口未来的走向与趋势。主要结论有:北京市常住育龄妇女规模在2010~2020年呈递减趋势,并将在未来进一步缩减;育龄妇女年龄结构不断年长化,年龄重心不断向高年龄组转移;育龄妇女婚育年龄整体推迟,婚姻不稳定性增加,第1孩生育占比下降;预计到2035年,北京市育龄妇女规模将进一步缩减,年龄结构将更加年长化。
<<From the perspective of resident women aged 15-49,this article interprets the future demographic trends in Beijing,and describe their characteristics with multi-dimensional demographic variables to reveal the future trend of Beijing’s population. The main findings are as follows:the size of resident women aged 15-49 in Beijing has shown a decreasing trend in the past ten years,and will decrease further in the future;the age structure of women aged 15-49 continues to age,with its peak of proportion to higher age groups;The age of marriage and childbearing of women aged 15-49 is generally delayed,marital instability is increasing,and the proportion of the first child births is decreasing;by 2035,the number of childbearing age women in Beijing will be further reduced,and the age structure will become more aging.
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