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    全球主权债务风险与可持续性评估(2022~2023)

    摘要

    2022年,全球宏观经济金融环境已逐步由新冠肺炎疫情前的“低通胀、低利率”均衡转向“高通胀、高利率”均衡。与此同时,全球经济增长也呈现动能不足和高度不确定性。在这一新环境下,主权债务压力或再度成为影响全球经济和金融稳定的巨大隐患。对以本币债务为主的发达经济体而言,经济下行和货币紧缩将加大政府偿债压力,但出乎意料的高通胀冲击会起到削减债务的作用。下一阶段,这些经济体最值得关注的主权债务脆弱性来源是由资产价格下跌所带来的“银行/影子银行—主权”厄运循环风险。对依赖外债融资的新兴市场和发展中国家而言,陷入主权债务困境的国家数量开始增加。由于这些经济体缺乏应对美联储加息和全球需求下行等负面冲击的有效政策工具,主权债务危机或进一步扩散。面对即将来袭的主权债务危机潮,国际社会应在全球债务治理和宏观政策协调方面开展更深入的合作。

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    Abstract

    In 2022,the global economy has gradually shifted from a “low inflation and low interest rate” condition before the outburst of Covid-19 to a “high inflation and high interest rate” condition. Meanwhile,world economic growth is challenged by a lack of strength and various types of uncertainties. Against this new background,the systemic risk of widespread sovereign debt crises has once again become a hidden danger to global economic and financial stability. For advanced economies whose sovereign debt are predominantly denominated by local currency,the economic downturn and monetary tightening will put pressure on government repayment,but such pressure could be buffered by the debt reduction effect of unexpected high inflation shock. The most worrisome vulnerability for these economies is the risk of a vicious circle of “bank/shadow bank-sovereign” doom loop initiated by falling asset prices. For emerging markets and developing countries that are more reliant on external debt funding,the number of countries in debt distress has already increased. As it is extremely difficult for these economies to effectively offset the negative effect of external monetary tightening and global demand reduction risks,more countries may go into distress. Facing the impending wave of sovereign debt crisis,the international community should enhance cooperation on global debt governance and macroeconomic policy coordination.

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    作者简介
    熊婉婷:熊婉婷,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所全球宏观研究室助理研究员,研究方向:全球宏观经济、债务问题。
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