乌克兰危机爆发后,美欧对俄罗斯采取了一系列金融制裁措施。特别是冻结了俄罗斯外汇储备,将俄罗斯重要银行排除在环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)系统之外,这两项金融制裁措施对俄罗斯产生了重要影响。同时,金融制裁的频繁使用,尤其是对俄罗斯这样大国的使用,加剧了新兴市场和发展中国家对美元体系的不信任,动摇了美元、SWIFT作为国际货币体系公共产品的逻辑基础。虽然从现实来看,美元、SWIFT在国际货币体系中的相对地位仍然难以动摇,但这并不意味着国际货币体系仍将保持稳定。一旦持有外汇储备的意愿下降,新兴市场和发展中国家或将提高汇率波动性的容忍度,或将更多地实施资本流动管理措施。因此,在未来的去中心化、去全球化过程中,国际货币体系的不稳定性将呈现出上升趋势。
<<After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the United States and Europe have adopted a series of financial sanctions against Russia. In particular,the freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves and the exclusion of key Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications(SWIFT)have had important impacts on Russia. Moreover,frequent use of financial sanctions on large countries(especially Russia)has exacerbated the distrust of the US dollar System in emerging markets and developing countries. Logical foundation for the US dollar and SWIFT as public goods of international monetary system has been destabilized to some extent. However,the position of the US dollar and SWIFT is still hard to change. This does not mean that the international monetary system will remain the same forever. Once the willingness to hold foreign exchange reserves declines,emerging markets and developing countries will either increase their tolerance of exchange rate volatility or implement more capital flow management measures. Therefore,in the trend of de-globalization in the future,the international monetary system will turn out to be more volatile.
<<Keywords: | Reserve CurrencyInternational Monetary SystemFinancial SanctionsInternational Financial Infrastructure |