俄罗斯既是全球能源超级大国,又是重要的粮食、化肥和金属出口国,而乌克兰是重要的粮食出口国,冲突带来的破坏和美西方国家的制裁严重限制了俄乌两国大宗商品的生产和出口的能力,加剧了全球大宗商品供应失衡状况,导致能源、食品和金属的价格飙涨,特别是欧洲天然气、煤炭和镍价格创历史新高。乌克兰危机导致全球能源流向重整,俄罗斯将基本失去欧洲市场并转向亚洲寻求替代消费市场,而美国高价的LNG取代俄罗斯廉价的管道气成为欧洲天然气进口的主要来源。预计乌克兰危机对欧洲能源安全的边际影响递减,但欧洲将在未来较长期内特别是在冬天供暖季仍然会经常受到能源供应来源不稳定问题的困扰,不过强度会显著弱于乌克兰危机的冲击。受美元大幅升值和债务负担加重等因素的叠加影响,一些对俄乌粮食依赖度高的中东、非洲和亚洲的中低收入国家的粮食进口支付能力被严重削弱,爆发粮食危机的风险显著上升。全球金属市场受影响相对较小,伦交所青山镍期货被逼空事件基本平稳落幕,受潜在的美国禁止进口俄罗斯铝的影响,铝产品市场出现波动的风险较大。
<<Russia is a superpower in energy production and export,an important exporter of grain,fertilizer,and metals,and Ukraine is an important exporter of grain in the world. The destruction of the war and the sanctions of the United States and Western countries on Russia have seriously constrained the capabilities of commodities production and export in Russia and Ukraine,exacerbated the imbalance in the global supply of commodities,and led to soaring prices of energy,food and metals,especially the record high prices of natural gas in Europe,coal and nickel. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to a realignment of global energy flows,Russia will lose the European market and turn to Asia to find new market,the United States’ expensive LNG will replace Russia’s cheap pipeline gas as the main source of European gas imports. The marginal impact of the Ukraine crisis on Europe’s energy security is expected to diminish,but it will continue to be plagued by unstable energy sources for a longer term,especially during the winter heating season,although the intensity will be significantly weaker than the impact of the Ukraine crisis. It expected that the Europe will face energy supply instability problems in the coming years,especially in winter,but the most difficult period for European energy supply has passed,and the marginal impact of the conflict on its energy supply will decrease gradually. Affected by the combination of factors such as the sharp appreciation of the US dollar and the increase in the debt burden,the abilities of some low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East,Africa and Asia with high food dependence on Russia and Ukraine to pay for food imports have been seriously weakened,and the possibility of food crisis has significantly increased. Compared with energy and food market,the global metal market was less affected,and the event of the short squeeze in LSE nickel futures of Qingshan Group has been resolved smoothly,but the aluminum product market is subject to a high risk of volatility due to the potential US import ban of Russian aluminum.
<<Keywords: | Food CrisisUkrainian CrisisEuropean Gas CrisisEnergy Trade ShiftShort Squeeze in Nickel Futures. |