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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    国际直接投资形势回顾与展望(2022~2023):复苏恐难持续

    摘要

    在发达经济体经济刺激政策影响下,跨国企业利润激增,企业内部及之间的金融活动和跨境并购活跃,推动2021年全球国际直接投资同比增长64%,恢复至新冠肺炎疫情之前的水平。因为疫情而采取的部分紧急投资政策也趋于结束,但投资监管收紧的趋势仍在继续,涉及限制性的国别投资政策比例再创历史新高,并且主要来自发达经济体。乌克兰危机给逐渐走出疫情影响的国际投资和全球商业环境再度蒙上阴影。发达国家为了应对通胀压力的加息政策将进一步放缓跨境并购活动并抑制国际项目融资增长。地缘政治博弈则增加了全球经济运行的整体成本,跨国企业将不得不在价值观经贸、供应链安全、保持企业竞争力之间艰难寻求平衡。

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    Abstract

    Under the influence of the economic stimulus policies of developed economies,the profits of transnational enterprises soared,and the financial activities and cross-border mergers and acquisitions within and between enterprises were active,which promoted the global international direct investment to increase by 64% year on year in 2021,returning to the level before the COVID-19 epidemic. Some of the emergency investment policies adopted due to the epidemic are also coming to an end,but the trend of tightening investment supervision continues,and the proportion of restrictive investment policies has reached a new historical high,mainly from developed economies. The outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has cast a shadow on the international investment and global business environment. The interest rate increase policy of developed countries in response to inflation pressure will further slow down cross-border M&A activities and inhibit the growth of international project financing. Geopolitical games increase the overall cost of global economic operation,and multinational enterprises will have to find a balance between value economy and trade,supply chain security,and maintaining enterprise competitiveness.

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    作者简介
    王碧珺:王碧珺,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为国际投资。
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