2021年以来,全球政治社会发展的总体形势表现为民粹主义与民族主义等多种政治社会思潮继续盛行并相互激荡,各国党派斗争加剧与政治动荡频发,各国出台鼓励生育与改善就业等政策以缓解日益严重的社会问题与动乱,以及疫苗分配、气象灾害救助等政治与社会方面的国际合作取得新进展。全球政治社会发展动向主要受六方面因素的影响,包括乌克兰危机引发粮食与能源危机、经济下行压力加大导致就业形势恶化、全球通胀高企推升相关国家民众生活成本、新冠肺炎疫情延宕反复干扰正常社会生活秩序、极端天气与自然灾害频发威胁民众安全、债务水平持续攀升约束财政调节能力。展望未来,全球政治社会发展将可能呈现政治社会思潮极端化与冲突性增加、政治与社会动乱的风险进一步加大、政治与社会领域国际合作更具紧迫性与复杂性等三大趋势。
<<Since 2021,various kinds of political and social thinking like populism and nationalism have been prevailing and contradicting,the struggle among parties and political conflicts have further intensified,more social policies on fertility encouragement and employment improvement have been introduced to alleviate relevant social problems,and international cooperations in vaccine distribution and climate disaster relief have made some progress. The global political and social development is mainly affected by the following six factors:the food and energy crisis caused by the Ukraine crisis,the deterioration of employment situation due to the economy in downward pull,high living costs resulting from global inflation surge,the reversal of COVID-19 Pandemic,the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and natural disasters and the constrained fiscal adjustment ability due to the rising debt level. Looking ahead,the development trends of political and social thinking will be more extreme and competing,the risks of political and social turmoil will rise,and international cooperations in the political and social fields will be more needed and complicated.
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