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    2022大选年:各国态势及其对世界政治的影响

    摘要

    2022年,很多国家都迎来了政府换届选举,而这也势必对这些国家的内政和外交产生重大影响,进而影响世界政治与经济的总体态势。受到新冠肺炎疫情影响,很多国家在国内都面临经济增长迟缓、通货膨胀加剧、贫困人口增加、失业率上升等问题,而这也成为这些国家大选中选民所关注的核心议题。受到近年来政治极化的影响,一些国家内部选民态度对立的现象更加突出,极右翼候选人较以往得到了更多的支持。近年来有所加剧的大国竞争也对很多国家的选举产生了影响,成为政治候选人所关注的核心外交议题。2022年2月爆发的乌克兰危机进一步增加了地缘政治的不确定性,并引发了美欧对俄罗斯的新一轮制裁。本国在乌克兰危机中的立场,也成为一些国家的候选人争论的重点。总体上看,在“百年未有之大变局”的背景下,很多国家的大选都出现了一些新现象和新趋势,而新上任的政府也面临着内政和外交方面的诸多挑战。

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    Abstract

    2022 is definitely “a year of election”,in which many presidential and parliamentary elections have been held. These elections will inevitably exercise influence over their home countries’ domestic and foreign affairs,and world economy and politics as well. Due to the problems caused by COVID-19,many countries are suffering such difficulties as low economic growth,deteriorating inflation,and increasing poverty and unemployment rate,which have also been the key issues the candidates and masses concern most. The political polarization in some countries has caused the sharp attitude division and even antagonism among the public,which results in the increasing popularity of some far-right candidates. Major power competition is another key issue around which candidates debate,and it is directly related to the envision of candidates on the foreign affairs in some countries. The Ukraine crisis exacerbates the geopolitical tenseness further,and then causes a new round of sanctions toward Russia by Western powers. As far as the position of their home country in the crisis is concerned,some candidates debate fiercely and express obviously divergent attitudes. as well. In all,while the world is undergoing the greatest change in a century,several new phenomena and trends appear in the election in some countries,and the newly-elected political leaders will have to respond to a variety of unprecedented domestic and international challenges as well.

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    作者简介
    袁正清:袁正清,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究方向为国际关系理论、中国外交。
    赵洋:赵洋,对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院副教授,主要研究方向为国际关系理论。
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