2022年2月爆发的乌克兰危机是美俄两国在安全困境中争夺欧亚地区领导权的必然结果。美西方国家对俄采取史上最大规模制裁,俄利用军事力量与能源优势进行对抗。在经济上,乌克兰危机带来的多米诺骨牌效应导致以大宗商品价格暴涨、通胀与经济衰退、逆全球化为主要表现的全球经济混乱,财富分配极化现象加剧,低收入阶层首当其冲。在军事上,乌克兰危机加深了全球军事化程度,核战争风险增加,德日等国重振军备。战局迁延且有升级危险。乌克兰危机的结局,取决于未来美西方国家与俄罗斯在能源、军事与经济领域的综合博弈。未来,美西方是否会因俄核威慑或政局变化而放弃或减少对乌支持,北溪管道遭破坏后,冬季气候形势是否会迫使欧洲重启俄罗斯能源,俄罗斯能否在维持国内稳定的情况下在乌克兰取得战场优势,是否会发生触发俄罗斯使用核武器的极端事件,以上因素将是决定乌克兰危机前景的关键。
<<The Ukrainian crisis in February 2022 is the inevitable result of the US and Russia vying for leadership in the Eurasian region in the security dilemma. The United States and Western countries adopted the largest sanctions against Russia in history,and Russia used its military strength and energy advantages to counter. In economy,the crisis in Ukraine and its spillover led to global economic chaos mainly manifested by the soaring commodity prices,inflation,economic recession,and anti globalization. The polarization of wealth distribution has intensified,with low-income groups bearing the brunt. Besides,the crisis in Ukraine has accelerated the global militarization,increased the risk of nuclear war,revived the armaments of Germany and Japan and other countries. The war situation is protracted and there is a danger of escalation. Will the US and the West reduce their support for Ukraine due to political changes in the US?Will the “North Stream” pipeline be damaged?Will the winter climate situation force Europe to restart Russian energy?Will Russia gain battlefield advantage in Ukraine?Will extreme events trigger Russia’s use of nuclear weapons occur?The above factors will be the key to determine the prospect of Ukraine’s crisis.
<<Keywords: | RussiaEuropeAmericaUkraine Crisis |