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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2022~2023年拉美经济:低位复苏

    摘要

    拉美和加勒比地区在经历了2021年经济大幅反弹之后,2022年经济有望继续保持复苏,经济增长预计为2。7%。2023年拉美和加勒比地区将面临更为复杂的国内外环境。从外部来看,全球经济增速预计将进一步放缓,拉美和加勒比地区的外部需求减弱,流入该地区的外资以及侨汇收入将会减少。同时全球金融环境趋紧、地缘政治紧张局势加剧,拉美和加勒比地区金融风险上升。从内部来看,国内通胀压力持续加大,各国货币政策同步收紧,而财政压力的加大也使得各国政府财政刺激力度减弱。乌克兰危机造成全球地缘政治风险上升,能源危机、粮食危机、全球供应链中断风险等因素也将不可避免地对拉美和加勒比地区造成冲击。2023年拉美和加勒比地区经济增速将会有所放缓,复苏进程仍面临多重挑战。

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    Abstract

    Following a substantial rebound in 2021,economic recovery is expected to continue across Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC)in 2022,with economic growth rate projected at 2.7%. With outlook in 2023,LAC will be encountered with more complicated domestic and foreign challenges,however. From the external perspective,further slowdown in the global economic growth is predicted,LAC will not only present the lower external demand,but also witness the shrinking inflow of foreign direct investment and remittances. Moreover,due to the tightening global financial conditions and deteriorating geopolitical tensions,financial risks will escalate in LAC. From the internal perspective,the domestic inflation pressures will continuously aggravate,and monetary policies of various countries in LAC will be tightened synchronously. Meanwhile,the mounting fiscal pressures will also undermine the fiscal stimulus efforts by various governments. The Ukraine crisis has caused a rise in global geopolitical risks,and factors such as the energy crisis,food crisis,and the risk of global supply chain disruptions will inevitably hit Latin America and the Caribbean. Economic growth of LAC will slow down in 2023,whereas multiple challenges will be still posed to recovery process.

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    作者简介
    熊爱宗:熊爱宗,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所全球治理研究室副研究员,研究方向:国际金融、新兴市场。
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