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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2022~2023年印度经济:减速复苏

    摘要

    2021~2022财年印度经济仍然处于内生因素驱动下的复苏进程中,其GDP将在2022年首次超过英国,取代英国成为世界第五大经济体。2022年前三个季度印度通货膨胀显著高于上年同期,1~9月消费价格指数(CPI)同比增长率均值为6。9%,明显高于2021年同期均值5。2%。印度股市在疫情冲击下大跌之后的趋势性上涨行情未能在2022年延续,而是在该年呈现上半年下跌、下半年回升且高位震荡的特征。失业率相对比较平稳。财政预算支出上升,赤字及债务压力增加。货币政策转向紧缩,以抑制通胀、资本外流和货币贬值风险。供给面和需求面对未来一年印度经济增长均具有较好支撑,但乌克兰危机长期化,美联储急剧加息对汇率、资本流动、大宗商品价格及金融市场的冲击,疫情走向的不确定性,芯片等重要产品的供应链稳定性等因素,仍然是未来一年影响印度经济增长的潜在挑战。综合考虑各方面因素,预计印度2022/2023财年实际经济增长率6。7%左右,2023/2024财年预计为6。3%左右。

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    Abstract

    The Indian economy remains in the process of recovery driven by endogenous factors in FY 2021-2022,with its GDP set to overtake that of the UK for the first time in 2022 to become the world’s fifth largest economy. Inflation in India was significantly higher in the first three quarters of 2022 than in the same period a year earlier,with the consumer price index(CPI)growing at an average of 6.9% year-on-year from January to September,significantly higher than the average of 5.2% in the same period in 2021. The stock market ends its trend upward after a big drop under the epidemic shock and is characterized by a decline in the first half of the year and a rebound and high shocks in the second half of 2022. Unemployment is relatively flat. Fiscal budget spending rises,deficit and debt pressures increase,and monetary policy turns tighter to curb inflation,capital outflows,and currency devaluation risks. India’s GDP will overtake that of the UK for the first time in 2022 and India will replace the UK as the world’s fifth largest economy. The supply side and demand side have good support for India’s economic growth in the coming year,but the prolongation of the Ukraine crisis,the impact of the Federal Reserve’s sharp interest rate hike on the exchange rate,capital flows,commodity prices and financial markets,uncertainty about the direction of the epidemic,and the supply chain security of important products such as chips,are still potential challenges affecting India’s economic growth in the coming year. Taking all factors into account,India’s real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 6.7% in FY2022-2023 and is expected to be around 6.3% in FY2023-2024.

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    作者简介
    冯维江:冯维江,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,研究方向为世界经济、国际政治经济学。
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