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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2022~2023年亚太经济:复苏面临多重挑战

    摘要

    受到乌克兰危机、发达经济体货币政策收紧和供应链冲击等多重叠加挑战,亚太经济2022年的复苏进程不顺利,增长形势不及上年。2022年,亚太地区17个国家的加权平均经济增速预计为3。9%,比2021年降低2。5个百分点,但高于全球经济平均增速。2022年,亚太地区通胀压力上升,不过总体通胀水平相对全球平均水平仍较温和。受美元强势走高影响,亚太地区各经济体货币对美元全部贬值。受大宗商品价格影响各国经常账户分化,大宗商品出口国经常账户改善,能源进口依赖国经常账户恶化。随着宽松政策退出,政府债务开始调整。区内主要经济体2022年上半年经济走势良好,但2022年下半年经济增速开始放缓。展望2023年,亚太经济增速面临进一步放缓压力,但是如果中国经济进一步复苏,亚太区域价值链得以持续调整和巩固,数字经济继续蓬勃发展,则亚太经济将在全球经济复苏进程中扮演更为积极的角色。

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    Abstract

    Affected by multiple challenges including the Ukraine crisis,the tightening of monetary policy in developed economies and supply chain shocks,the recovery process of the Asia-Pacific economy in 2022 was not smooth,and the overall growth momentum was weaker than the previous year. In 2022,the weighted average economic growth rate of 17 countries in the Asia-Pacific region was expected to be 4.0%-2.4 percentage points lower than in 2021,but higher than the global average. Inflationary pressures rose in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022,however,the headline inflation remained moderate relative to global levels. Affected by the strong US dollar,the currencies of all economies in the Asia-Pacific region have depreciated against the US dollar. Current accounts were diverged due to hikes of commodity prices,with commodity exporters improving and commodity importers deteriorating. As easing policy withdrew,government debt began to adjust. The region’s major economies performed well in the first half of 2022,but began to slow down in the second half of 2022. Looking forward to 2023,the Asia-Pacific economy will face further slowdown pressure,but if China’s economy recovers further,the Asia-Pacific regional value chain continues to consolidate,and the digital economy continues to flourish,the Asia-Pacific economy will play a more active role in the global economic recovery process.

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    作者简介
    杨盼盼:杨盼盼,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员、国际金融研究室副主任,研究方向:国际金融、亚太经济。
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