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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    欧洲经济:增长前景黯淡

    摘要

    2021年下半年至2022年初,新冠肺炎疫情仍不时袭扰欧洲经济,导致其复苏步伐自2021年第四季度起有所放缓。2022年2月底乌克兰危机爆发后,地缘政治开始取代疫情成为左右欧洲经济的核心因素。能源供给短缺和供应链瓶颈使得欧洲通货膨胀水平居高不下,经济景气指数和消费者信心双双暴跌,企业投资支出和居民消费支出下滑。不仅如此,能源价格走高也使得欧洲贸易条件恶化,贸易逆差持续扩大。面对不断攀升的通胀,欧洲央行加速收紧货币政策,连续大幅加息,进一步给经济带来下行压力。在地缘政治冲突持续的背景下,欧洲经济高通胀、低增长、紧货币的局面短期内难以得到改变,预计未来欧盟和欧元区经济增长将继续放缓,2022年经济增长率为3。0%~3。5%,2023年放缓至0。3%~0。6%。

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    Abstract

    The resurgence of the pandemic has led to renewed strains on the EU economy during the second half of 2021,while most countries across the EU end the year on a weaker note. After that,the pandemic situation improves,and the Russia’s war against Ukraine has become the major disruptive factor for European economy since February 24th,2022. The shortage of natural gas and supply bottlenecks pushed up the inflationary pressure,while hitting the confidence severely both in the production and household sector. The capital expenditure and private consumption contracted as the inflationary pressures weighed on the production costs as well as households’ purchasing power. The terms of trade were also worsened and the trade deficit widened in the Euro Area. In order to ensure the timely return of inflation to the medium-term target,the ECB has expedited its normalization of the monetary policy and raised the interest rate consecutively. As the geopolitical conflict continues,higher inflation accompanied with lower economic growth and less favorable financing condition is hard to dissipate in the near term. Therefore,the annual real GDP growth is expected to stand at 3.0%~3.5% in 2022 and drop to 0.3~0.6% in 2023.

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    作者简介
    陆婷:陆婷,博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为国际金融。
    东艳:东艳,博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究方向为国际贸易。
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