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谢伏瞻
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    全球武装冲突与军事形势评估(2021~2022)

    摘要

    2021~2022年度全球武装冲突的特点是持续发生大量高度暴力的冲突,全球武装冲突爆发地区主要集中在西亚、北非和阿富汗地区。2021~2022年度全球武装冲突值得重点关注的事件包括:阿富汗国内局势仍然动荡,刚果民主共和国和埃塞俄比亚战争频发,缅甸内战引发局势动荡,俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突不断升级。军事演习方面,2021~2022年度各国军事演习频数有所下降,军事演习内容更加丰富,各国越发重视高科技在军事作战中的应用。军费开支方面,2021年全球军费开支连续第七年增长,达到21130亿美元,大多数国家的军费开支在2021~2022年呈现增长态势。国防战略层面,2021~2022年度各国越发重视非传统安全威胁对国家安全的影响,传统安全层面国防战略并未发生明显变化。随着信息与网络技术的发展,各国国防战略都表现出对新兴技术领域的探索,注重提升军事作战的现代化水平,增强多领域联合作战能力。

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    Abstract

    The global armed conflicts in 2021-2022 will be characterized by the continuous occurrence of a large number of highly violent conflicts,and the global armed conflicts are mainly concentrated in West Asia,North Africa and Afghanistan. In 2021-2022,the events in the global armed conflicts are:the domestic situation in Afghanistan is still volatile,wars in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia are frequent,the civil war in Myanmar has caused the situation to be turbulent,and the conflicts in Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. In terms of military exercises,the frequency of military exercises of various countries in 2021-2022 has decreased. The content has become more abundant,and countries have paid more attention to the application of high technology in military operations. In terms of military spending,global military spending will increase for the seventh consecutive year in 2021,reaching $2,113 billion. The military spending in most countries showing an upward trend. At the national defense strategy level,countries will pay more attention to the impact of non-traditional security threats on national security,while the traditional security level defense strategy has not changed significantly. With the development of information and network technology,the national defense strategies of various countries have shown the exploration of emerging technology fields,focusing on improving the modernization level of military operations and enhancing multi-domain joint combat capabilities.

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    作者简介
    徐进:徐进,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为国际关系理论和国际安全问题。
    薄荣康:薄荣康,中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院2021级博士研究生。
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