在宏观政策收紧、疫情形势延宕反复、地缘政治冲突升级、重大气候灾害频发等短期因素的冲击下,发达国家CPI持续大幅上涨、大国地缘政治经济博弈加剧、金融市场动荡加剧、美元指数急速攀升和大宗商品价格巨涨落等相互交织,2022年世界经济增速明显下滑。当前,世界经济运行中的各种短期问题和长期矛盾交织叠加,一些不稳定、不确定、不安全的短期因素不断涌现的同时,一些深层次矛盾和结构性问题也日益凸显。展望未来,抑制通胀与实现“软着陆”、美欧宏观政策转向的溢出效应、大规模国际制裁及其影响、区域经贸科技机制政治化、全球粮食危机等方面的态势和趋势值得关注。鉴于目前世界经济发展呈现的种种迹象并考虑到各种因素可能带来的影响,本报告认为,2023年世界经济复苏将面临更大压力,经济增速进一步降至2。5%的可能性较大。
<<Impacted by the short-term factors of tightening macroeconomic policy,ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,escalating geopolitical conflicts and frequent major climatic disasters,the world economic growth rate declined significantly in 2022,accompanied by the continued soaring in CPI of developed countries,intensification of geopolitical and economic games between major countries,increased turbulence of financial markets,rapid increase of U.S. dollar index and drastic fluctuation of commodity prices. At present,a variety of short-term problems and long-term contradictions of the world economy are intertwining,which not only leads to the emergence of several unstable,uncertain,and insecure short-term factors,but also gradually shows some deep-seated and structural issues. Looking ahead,the trends and developments of curbing inflation and achieving a soft landing,the spillover effects of macro policy shifts in the U.S. and EU,large-scale international sanctions and their impact,the politicization of regional economic and technological mechanisms,and the global food crisis deserve attention. Taking into account the current signs of the world economic development and other factors,this report believes that the world economic recovery will face more pressure in 2023 than 2022,and it is highly likely that the economic growth rate will drop further to 2.5%..
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