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谢伏瞻
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    2022年中国消费市场形势分析与2023年展望

    摘要

    2022年消费市场遭受了2020年以来最严重的国内疫情扩散和外部环境急剧变化等影响,一度出现增速下降、动力减弱、信心不足的不利局面。为应对超预期冲击,中央和地方政府及时出台一系列稳增长、促消费、保通保畅政策措施,有力支撑消费市场顶住压力实现规模的V型复苏和动力的触底反弹,取得了极为不易的成就。总体来看,2022年消费市场价格运行平稳,为消费升级和创新营造了稳定的市场环境,汽车置换和升级、线上新型消费、绿色健康消费、品质品牌消费等一批消费新增长点持续涌现。同时也要看到,社会集团和外来消费、居住类消费、服务消费、城市消费等面临的不稳定性不确定性有所增加。展望2023年,党的二十大的胜利召开为消费市场提供强大信心、五大结构性因素将持续促进消费潜能释放、增长预期较为乐观为消费复苏创造较好的宏观环境、短期内一揽子政策陆续发力还将为消费复苏注入新动能,全年社会消费品零售总额有望实现6%以上的增长。下一步,建议长短结合、远近兼顾,既要抓紧时机在短期内“稳预期、畅循环、保基本”,也要顺势而为在中长期“重创新、提品质、促转型”,尽快恢复供给与需求之间的正向循环,促进消费市场稳定复苏。

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    Abstract

    2022 the consumer market suffered the most serious domestic COVID-19 spread and rapid changes in the external environment influence since 2020,result in declining growth,and lack of confidence. To cope with the unexpected impact,the central and local government timely release a series of policy to stabilize growth,promote consumption,restore the logistics,which contribute to support a “V” type recovery and rebound. In general,consumer prices running smoothly,market upgrade continues,the online consumption,green healthy consumption,quality brand consumption continues to emerge. At the same time,social group and foreign consumption,housing consumption,service consumption,urban consumption is going through increased instability and uncertainty. Looking forward,the successful hold of 12th National Congress of the CPC provide strong confidence,the five structural factors will continue to release consumption potential,relatively optimistic growth forecasts create good macro environment,policies in the short term will also injected new momentum to the recovery of consumption,consumption is expected to achieve more than 6% growth in 2023. The next step,it is recommended to lift expectations,to smooth the circulation,to support the poor,to facilitate innovation,to improve quality,to boost transformation,to resumed positive cycle between supply and demand,to achieve better consumption recovery.

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    作者简介
    王微:王微,国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所所长、研究员,研究方向为消费、商贸流通。
    王念:王念,国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所副研究员,研究方向为消费、商贸流通。
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