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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    世界能源市场格局演化与中国新能源产业发展

    摘要

    当前世界能源市场形成于20世纪70年代的石油危机。经过数十年的发展,以IEA、OPEC和OPEC+为代表的组织成为主导世界能源格局的主要力量。国际石油市场的历次动荡到最后平衡,多是几大组织博弈的结果。乌克兰危机作为2022年最大的黑天鹅事件,直接将国际能源市场带进了动荡调整期。当前,油气作为重要的国际大宗商品,仍然是世界主导能源。如同历史上历次石油危机,国际石油市场仍然会重新调整到既有的格局下,只是博弈各方力量可能会重新洗牌。与此同时,新能源发展开始进入加速期,世界能源转型提速,新能源将成为未来世界能源市场的主角,成为重塑世界能源市场的重要驱动力。中国是世界新能源市场的重要力量,中国新能源产业规模和技术明显提升。为了应对未来能源市场的国际竞争,中国需加快能源转型步伐,加强能源领域的国际合作,积极参与国际能源治理,在保障能源安全的基础上承担大国责任,共同维护国际能源市场稳定,推动形成国际新能源市场新秩序。

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    Abstract

    The current world energy market was formed in the oil crisis in the 1970s. After decades of development,organizations represented by IEA,OPEC and OPEC+ have become the main forces leading the world energy pattern. The previous turbulence in the international oil market to the final balance is mostly the result of the game of several major organizations. As the largest black swan incident this year,the Russia-Ukraine conflict directly brought the international energy market into a period of turbulence and adjustment. At present,oil and gas,as important international commodities,are still the world’s leading energies. As in previous oil crises in history,the international oil market will still readjust to the existing pattern,but the forces of all players in the game may reshuffle. At the same time,the development of new energy has begun to enter an accelerated period. The world energy transformation will speed up. New energy will become the leading role in the future energy market and an important driving force to reshape the world energy market. China is an important force in the world’s new energy market,and the scale and technology of China’s new energy industry have significantly improved. In order to cope with the international competition in the energy market in the future,China needs to accelerate the pace of energy transformation,strengthen international cooperation in the energy field,actively participate in international energy governance,assume the responsibility of a major country,jointly maintain the stability of the international energy market,and promote the new order of the international new energy market on the basis of ensuring energy security.

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    作者简介
    王蕾:王蕾,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为能源经济、低碳经济、产业发展与产业政策。
    史丹:史丹,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所研究员,主要研究方向为能源经济、低碳经济、产业发展与产业政策。
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