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    2022~2023年中国货币金融形势分析

    摘要

    在疫情反复、乌克兰危机、美联储持续大幅加息的复杂背景下,中国宏观金融形势在2022年的波动幅度有所加大,经历了从极度宽松到极度偏紧再逐步回归中性偏紧的历程。金融运行的具体表现为:在经济恢复基础尚不稳固的背景下,社融和信贷修复一波三折;宏观杠杆率较快攀升,呈现前高后稳态势;货币市场狭义流动性偏松,广义流动性改善;城投债发行和净融资双降,信用风险分化加剧;稳楼市政策密集出台,房地产市场整体处于下行筑底阶段;经济衰退预期叠加流动性紧缩,大宗商品市场先扬后抑;中美经济和政策周期错位加剧人民币对美元贬值压力。展望2023年,在国内经济下行压力犹存和各类风险苗头抬升的情形下,稳增长和防范相关风险是货币金融政策的重点任务,包括:将稳预期放在各项工作的首位;加强财政、货币政策的协调配合;多措并举,稳定地方政府的收入来源和资金供给模式;做好防范外部冲击、房地产和城投债三类重点金融风险的应对预案。

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    Abstract

    Against the complex background of repeated outbreaks,deteriorating situation in Russia and Ukraine,and the Federal Reserve’s continued substantial interest rate hikes,China’s macro financial situation has experienced greater volatility in 2022,from extremely loose to extremely tight,and then gradually returned to a neutral and tight state. The specific financial performance is as follows:Due to the unstable economic recovery,social finance and credit growth have experienced ups and downs;Macro leverage ratio rose rapidly,showing a trend of “first rise and then stabilize”;The narrow sense liquidity of the money market is loose,and the broad sense liquidity is improved;Both the issuance of urban investment bonds and net financing decreased,and credit spread intensified;The policy of stabilizing the real estate market has been implemented intensively,and the real estate market is in the downward bottoming stage as a whole;The expectation of economic recession superimposes the liquidity contraction,and the commodity market developed first and then declined;The dislocation of the economic and policy cycles between China and the United States has intensified the pressure of RMB devaluation against the US dollar. Looking forward to 2023,under the situation that downward pressure on the domestic economy still exists and various risk signs are rising,stabilizing growth,and preventing related risks are the key tasks of monetary and financial policies. Including:putting stability of expectations at the top of all work;strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies;taking various measures to stabilize the financing sources of local governments;making plans to prevent three major financial risks,namely,external shocks,real estate,and urban investment bonds.

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    作者简介
    张晓晶:张晓晶,中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员,主要研究方向为宏观经济学、宏观金融理论与发展经济学。
    费兆奇:费兆奇,中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员,主要研究方向为宏观金融、货币政策。
    曹婧:曹婧,中国社会科学院金融研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为地方政府债务、财税理论与政策。
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