2022年宏观经济在多重外生冲击影响下,波动加剧结构分化,呈现“三强三弱一稳三难”的特征。影响经济运行的主要因素是疫情多点散发、外部和外生因素持续冲击、房地产市场矛盾集中爆发纾困推进艰难、预期转弱私人部门“做减法”,同时稳经济政策托底作用显著,守住了经济运行的底线。展望2023年第四季度和2023年经济形势,总体经济环境呈现“内优外差”特征,国内政策环境和防疫政策优化将有力支撑和促进经济恢复,外部环境因滞胀和美国遏制因素而趋于严峻,总体而言有利因素的影响将抵消不利因素,经济增速继续保持回升态势,预计2023年经济增速在5%左右。宏观政策继续保持连续性,进一步优化政策环境,提振信心。
<<Under multiple shocks,China’s economy experienced bigger fluctuations in 2022 with diverse performance in different sectors. The main factors that dictate the dynamic of Chinese economy are the Omicron pandemic,Ukraine Crisis,heat wave,sluggish housing market and lying flat private sector. The accommodative policy,on the other hand,played a significant role in keeping economy afloat. Its frequency and intensity are unseen in recent years. Looking ahead,domestic environment will be more favorable,boosted by 20th CPC congress and improved pandemic response,while external environment will be exacerbated due to possible stagflation scenario of global economy and increased containment by US. In conclusion,with proper policy support,China’s economy will continue its recovery process and grow at about 5% in 2023.
<<Keywords: | Structural DifferentiationGood Domestic Environment & Poor International EnvironmentOptimize the Policy Environment |