中国面临的外部环境更加严峻,全球大部分国家同时面临增长乏力和通胀上升威胁,大国高科技产业博弈日趋激烈,美国不断强化对我国高科技产业的打压。外部环境变化给我国经济带来诸多挑战:出口对我国制造业和经济增长的贡献将会显著下降,人民币贬值和资本流出压力会持续一段时间但不会长久,外资调整在我国的产业链布局。应对外部挑战需要立足于三个方面:一是进一步发力逆周期政策扩大内需,对冲外需下降压力,确保国内宏观经济稳定;二是保持人民币汇率弹性,充分发挥汇率对宏观经济和资本流动的自动稳定器作用;三是深入实施创新发展战略,在高水平开放中统筹发展与安全。
<<China is facing more and more severe external environment. Most countries are facing the threat of sluggish growth and rising inflation. The high-tech industry competition among major countries is becoming increasingly fierce. The United States is strengthening its suppression of China’s high-tech industry. In 2023,the contribution of exports to China’s manufacturing industry and economic growth will decline. The pressure of RMB devaluation and capital outflow will last for a period of time,but not for long. Foreign capital will adjust its industrial chain arrangement in China. Responding to external challenges needs to be based on three aspects. First,need more counter cyclical policies to expand domestic demand,ensure macroeconomic stability;Second,maintain the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate and give full play to the role of the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer;Third,implement the innovative development strategy and coordinate development and security at a high level of openness.
<<Keywords: | InflationGlobal EconomySupply Chain |